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February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

In this video, Jim Vogt, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Tower Bridge Advisors, discusses the outlook for the markets in the months ahead. Inflation and Fed tightening are front and center issues, but supply chain, corporate earnings and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a major impact as well. What will the New Normal look like?

 

 

Additional information is available upon request.

# – This security is owned by the author of this report or accounts under his management at Tower Bridge Advisors.

Additional information on companies in this report is available on request. This report is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing company, industry or security mentioned herein. This firm or its officers, stockholders, employees and clients, in the normal course of business, may have or acquire a position including options, if any, in the securities mentioned. This communication shall not be deemed to constitute an offer, or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. The information above has been obtained from sources believed reliable, but is not necessarily complete and is not guaranteed. This report is prepared for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Opinions are subject to change without notice.

Filed Under: Economic Updates, Video Tagged With: Economic Update 2022, Inflation expectations, Jim Vogt, market outlook, Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management, portfolio management, Tower Bridge Advisors

Previous Post: « January 10, 2022 – If there was a message last week, it was that speculative fever is dissipating as the Fed winds down its pace of bond purchases. No one knows when the purging of speculation will end but it probably will be with a thud, not a whimper. Market rotation to financials, industrials and energy names suggests the economy continues to thrive despite Omicron. The rotation can go a bit farther. The high growth sector got very overpriced, outpacing cyclical and value stocks for years, and it could take several more months for the rotation to run its course, allowing for some intermittent bounces and reversals. The overall market is down only modestly as the speculative fringes blow apart.
Next Post: March 7, 2022 – While the war outcome continues down a path leading to a Russian occupation of Ukraine, the economic costs are becoming both starker and more apparent. Gasoline prices are rising close to $0.50 per week. If anything, the pace is accelerating. Wheat, aluminum, copper and palladium are spiking as well. These root commodity price increases will flow into a massive array of products. Inflation is quickly becoming more supply constrained than demand driven. The Fed’s weaponry can’t increase supply. »

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  • February 3, 2023 – So much for tight monetary conditions!? Stocks roared yesterday following Fed Chair Powell’s question and answer session. There was little new news to digest, but any hint of a pause is being taken with rampant FOMO and short covering. Stocks staged an impressive 2-day rally. All eyes are on payrolls today, following a less than stellar earnings evening on Thursday.
  • February 1, 2023 – Today the Federal Reserve concludes its 2-day FOMC meeting. While a quarter point rise in the Fed Funds rate is a foregone conclusion, the future direction of short-term rates will be the focus of everyone’s attention. Given the strong performance of financial markets in January, one should expect an effort by Chairman Powell to temper the current enthusiasm.
  • January 30, 2023 – This will be a busy week for earnings and Fed watchers. The results will matter less than the commentary. Stocks have exploded out of the gate this January, perhaps too far, too fast. The news this week may be a headwind, at least for the moment.
  • January 27, 2023 – January strength continues to pull money in from the sidelines as FOMO is creeping back into the market. A 5% jump in the opening month historically portends to a solid year. While earnings are coming in mixed and guidance even more muted, it is the stock’s reaction that matters more.
  • January 25, 2023 – Microsoft’s somber outlook will throw a bucket of cold water on stocks this morning. While the reaction to a weak outlook is likely to be less severe than the pummeling tech stocks took after third quarter earnings reports, the news is likely to burst the recent bubble of optimism that an all-clear signal will be sounded imminently. Market volatility continues for now without setting interim new highs or lows.
  • January 23, 2023 – Stocks remain in a trading range, pushed higher by declining long-term interest rates and pushed lower by economic fears. While markets trade within a range, there are winners and losers reacting to their own set of fundamentals.
  • January 20, 2023 – 2022 was a battle over inflation and how high interest rates would go. 2023 is turning into a battle over recessionary conditions and how much negative news is priced into stocks and bonds. There is wide disagreement on both, leading to an even cloudier picture for investors.
  • January 18, 2023- It’s earnings season. Goldman Sachs’ weak numbers yesterday sent stocks lower. A few good earnings reports will move them in the other direction, at least for the next two weeks. Meanwhile we are seeing rotation back to early cycle names, a good sign. Picking tomorrow’s winners means looking forward, not chasing what led the market in the last bull run.
  • January 13, 2023 – Finally, a CPI report that did not send shockwaves through markets. A relatively in-line update with the first month-over-month decline in prices was welcome news. This continued a streak of declining monthly inflation reports and should show the Fed that it is time to slow their aggressiveness. Things will not be that easy though.
  • January 11, 2023 – Earnings season kicks off Friday. December CPI data will be released tomorrow. Both could be market moving. The expectation is that inflation will continue to moderate while earnings are likely to decline slightly.

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