Wealth and Asset Management for You

Transitory—not again! Stocks surged yesterday, with the S&P 500 experiencing its largest gain since July, while bond yields fell sharply following the Fed’s March meeting, press release, and news conference.…

March 20, 2025 – Fed Chairman Powell’s reassuring statements about “transitory” inflation and the Fed’s decision to slow balance sheet reduction triggered a significant market rally, despite downward revisions to 2025 growth and earnings forecasts. The current economic landscape is heavily influenced by political policy changes, creating heightened uncertainty and potential volatility for investors. While a lower 10-year Treasury yield is a potential silver lining, gold’s recent surge to all-time highs raises questions about its relative valuation compared to other assets and its historical correlation with U.S. debt growth.Read More

The 21st century is almost a quarter old. Over that span there have been three distinct shock and awe moments for investors, 9/11, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the…

March 17, 2025 – Friday’s rally was a relief but, unless there is significant follow through today, it should be viewed simply as a relief rally. Since the start of the 21st century there have been three shock and awe moments that have frozen consumers and businesses in place leading to economic contractions of various lengths, 9/11, the Great Recession, and Covid-19. We may be at a fourth as both consumers and businesses face so many rapid fire events that they freeze in place. For equities to move higher, confidence needs to be restored and investors need to see a pathway to a better life promised by less government, increased productivity and reduced deficits.Read More

March Madness Last year, the University of Connecticut (UConn) Huskies repeated as national men’s college basketball champions, becoming just the eighth program and the ninth team overall to achieve this…

March 13, 2025 – The NCAA college basketball tournament known as March Madness kicks off this coming weekend. Part of the allure for fans is the unpredictability of the NCAA tournament. Cinderella stories, surprise upsets and general chaos among millions of March Madness brackets nationwide are the norm. As in the stock market, unpredictability and uncertainty are part of the investing process, and last year’s winners may not be this year’s victors.Read More

The Trump honeymoon appears to be over, at least on Wall Street.  Over the past several weeks since inauguration, we have seen reports of mass firings, the closings of several…

March 10, 2025 – At least on Wall Street, the Trump honeymoon is over. While all the shock and awe of the daily pronouncements from Washington makes some nervous, investors focus on the data. Virtually every data point of the last few weeks points to a slowing economy while inflation expectations remain elevated. That’s a bad combination. Trump’s game plan of lower taxes, higher tariffs, and a smaller government may evolve but the impact of all the steps taken or proposed will take time. Traders aren’t patient. They shoot first and ask questions later. Reality is that the impact of tariffs will be felt quickly while steps to streamline the government take longer. Until a fuller picture develops, markets are likely to stay volatile.Read More

Turbulence ahead The market is grappling with heightened uncertainty as trade tensions escalate. With the S&P 500 trading at 22x projected earnings, the stock market was priced for perfection prior…

March 6, 2025 – Escalating trade tensions, particularly through tariffs, are injecting significant uncertainty into the market, driving stock market declines and raising concerns about stagflation. Retailers are already experiencing increased costs and potential profit reductions, while broader economic indicators, like consumer spending and GDP growth forecasts, signal potential challenges. The Federal Reserve faces a complex dilemma, attempting to balance inflation concerns with economic growth amid these trade-induced pressures.Read More

Stocks rose sharply Friday afternoon soon after Ukraine President Zelensky was escorted out of the White House. The two were unrelated. The dustup in the Oval Office made for great…

March 3, 2025 – Markets seemed to ignore the scene at the White House on Friday. As always, they focused on the outlook for earnings and interest rates. Zelensky’s unceremonious exit from the White House didn’t change any economic forecasts. For investors, Friday afternoon’s sharp rally was better theatre than the antics in Washington anyway. President Trump will have another opportunity to stir the pot tomorrow night when he delivers the State of the Union address. Tariffs will be on everyone’s mind this week. What actually gets implemented and what doesn’t will get market focus. What we have learned over the past six weeks is to react to actual actions, not to promises of future events. It will be an interesting week.Read More

Something old, something new Existing-home sales slid 4.9% in January from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million homes. However, existing home sales did rise 2% from…

February 27, 2025 – This week we received a window into the housing market and home improvement retailers. Existing home sales rose 2% in January from the prior year and new home sales ticked up 1%. These are not robust numbers, but reside against a backdrop of elevated mortgage rates and strained housing affordability. While prices are not through the roof, they did rise about 4% for new homes and 5% for existing homes versus the prior year, and have risen for 19 consecutive months. This may make for a challenging year for home buyers until mortgage rates begin to retreat.Read More

While Friday was a nasty ending to the week, we have seen lots of one-day moves, up and down, that failed to extend into a trend. With that said, however,…

February 24, 2025 – Weaker economic data and ongoing tumult in Washington sent stocks reeling on Friday. But the data suggests modest slowing within the economy. While Trump’s actions dominate media focus, the actual impact to date on the economy is relatively moderate. Still, looking forward, the chaos suggests a lot of variability to future outcomes. Hopefully, it will moderate in the months ahead. Expect rising volatility until outcomes become more predictable.Read More

Earnings season Approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies have reported their quarterly earnings. On average, earnings are up 15% while revenue has increased roughly 4% Y/Y. Net profit margins have…

February 20, 2025 – S&P 500 earnings are showing strong growth, with a notable 15% Y/Y average increase, driving market gains, though the performance of major tech stocks is diverging. Conversely, the housing sector is facing significant headwinds due to rising interest rates and costs, indicating potential broader economic vulnerabilities. Future market direction hinges heavily on interest rate trends and the impact of evolving economic policies, which will determine the sustainability of current market valuations.Read More