Wealth and Asset Management for You

Stocks fell once again last week despite a sharp rally Friday afternoon. For the Dow Industrials, last week was the eighth straight down week, the longest such losing streak since…

May 23, 2022 – We avoided a bear market with a late day rally on Friday, but it’s hard to assume that a bottom is in. With stocks now down about 20%, we are more than halfway to a bear market bottom using historic averages as a guide. If we assume, at least for now, that any pending recession might be milder than average, hopefully, peak-to-trough, this market can be kinder to investors than the average bear market. Bear markets are ugly but they don’t last long, usually months, not years. Hopefully, we can see an end before too long.Read More

Almost all of the S&P 500 constituents have now reported first quarter earnings. Every quarterly earnings update period ends with retailers, which is what we have received this week. Although…

May 20, 2022 – Retail earnings wreaked even more havoc on stock prices this week. Discretionary and Staple stocks suffered the most, and bonds finally offered a safe haven. A small relief rally yesterday came as options expire today. Volatility is still here, but valuations are back to historic norms.Read More

Stocks rallied once again, the second strong session of the past three. Bond yields climbed but remained within their recent range with the 10-year Treasury closing at slightly below 3%.…

May 18, 2022 – Stocks have finally begun to rally, a sign that market valuations have normalized. Perhaps the recent sharp declines were too much. While a V-shape may be forming, hinting at a bottom, there are few signs that speculative fever has been fully purged or that investors can see clearly past the series of interest rate increases to come. An interim bottom seems more logical than a final one.Read More

Stocks staged a solid rally on Friday on the heels of a sharp recovery Thursday afternoon. An encouraging sign was a strong last half hour although a surge late Friday…

May 16, 2022 – Stocks had a strong rally Friday after a sharp recovery Thursday afternoon, but to be convincing, we need another strong follow through today. We’ll see. Markets seem to have made a fair adjustment to a slowing economic outlook and a good part of the speculative purge has been accomplished. But, while stocks have returned to fair value, they may not yet be cheap enough to ignite a powerful, sustainable rally.Read More

Happy Friday the 13th! The CPI and PPI reports did little to quell inflation fears. Although they helped make the case that inflation is peaking, the decline in prices was…

May 13, 2022 – The 2nd worst start to the year for equities is finally bringing numerous signs of finding a floor. We’re not at the all-clear signal yet, but many world class companies are now trading at relatively favorable entry points for long-term investors. Numerous questions remain, so baby steps are suggested for those with excess cash waiting to re-enter markets.Read More

Yesterday was a volatile session of give and take after Monday’s rout. When it was over equities were marginally higher, although the Dow Industrials fell for the fourth straight session.…

May 11, 2022 – The messages of the bond and stock markets over the past week have been quite different. Bond prices are about where they were before the FOMC meeting, while stocks continue in free fall. The NASDAQ has performed worse as speculation continues to be purged from the market. That process is well advanced but shows no sign of ending yet.Read More

The market has been volatile all year, but last week was volatility on steroids. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday did exactly what we outlined last Wednesday prior to the conclusion…

May 9, 2022 – Last week’s market was highly volatile, with very little net change except for the high P/E NASDAQ names. The Fed did what was expected, and both earnings and economic data were in line with forecasts. Unless the outlook changes appreciably in the weeks ahead, expect volatility to slow. Against that backdrop, reducing risk is a better path than speculation.Read More

Previous Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was nicknamed the “maestro”, not because he resembled a Seinfeld character, rather, he oversaw the Fed during a steady economic growth period from 1987 –…

May 6, 2022- Cinco de Mayo was not a festive affair. Initially, it seemed Chair Powell threaded the needle yet again with stocks staging a massive run after his speech Wednesday afternoon. That rally only lasted a few hours as rates spiked and stocks got whacked yesterday. We remain range-bound but are teetering on critical support levels.Read More

Stocks struggled to turn in a positive performance for the second straight session after taking a shellacking last week. Earnings news is starting to be less and less consistent with…

May 4, 2022 – The key to the market today is Jerome Powell’s press conference at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. What is key is whether or not he deviates from the current consensus on rate hikes and future reductions in the Fed’s balance sheet. Stocks are off to their worst annual start since 1939. I suspect today isn’t the day Mr. Powell wants to add more fuel to the fire.Read More