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Economic Update 2022

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

In this video, Jim Vogt, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Tower Bridge Advisors, discusses the outlook for the markets in the months ahead. Inflation and Fed tightening are front and center issues, but supply chain, corporate earnings and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a major impact as well. What will the New Normal …

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?Read More

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  • January 27, 2023 – January strength continues to pull money in from the sidelines as FOMO is creeping back into the market. A 5% jump in the opening month historically portends to a solid year. While earnings are coming in mixed and guidance even more muted, it is the stock’s reaction that matters more.
  • January 25, 2023 – Microsoft’s somber outlook will throw a bucket of cold water on stocks this morning. While the reaction to a weak outlook is likely to be less severe than the pummeling tech stocks took after third quarter earnings reports, the news is likely to burst the recent bubble of optimism that an all-clear signal will be sounded imminently. Market volatility continues for now without setting interim new highs or lows.
  • January 23, 2023 – Stocks remain in a trading range, pushed higher by declining long-term interest rates and pushed lower by economic fears. While markets trade within a range, there are winners and losers reacting to their own set of fundamentals.
  • January 20, 2023 – 2022 was a battle over inflation and how high interest rates would go. 2023 is turning into a battle over recessionary conditions and how much negative news is priced into stocks and bonds. There is wide disagreement on both, leading to an even cloudier picture for investors.
  • January 18, 2023- It’s earnings season. Goldman Sachs’ weak numbers yesterday sent stocks lower. A few good earnings reports will move them in the other direction, at least for the next two weeks. Meanwhile we are seeing rotation back to early cycle names, a good sign. Picking tomorrow’s winners means looking forward, not chasing what led the market in the last bull run.
  • January 13, 2023 – Finally, a CPI report that did not send shockwaves through markets. A relatively in-line update with the first month-over-month decline in prices was welcome news. This continued a streak of declining monthly inflation reports and should show the Fed that it is time to slow their aggressiveness. Things will not be that easy though.
  • January 11, 2023 – Earnings season kicks off Friday. December CPI data will be released tomorrow. Both could be market moving. The expectation is that inflation will continue to moderate while earnings are likely to decline slightly.
  • January 9, 2023 – Friday’s rally was a celebration of the fact that wage increases are showing clear signs of moderating. The Fed is winning its battle against inflation and can hopefully stop raising short-term interest rates soon. The impact of higher rates is already priced into stocks. The effect on earnings will be seen shortly as corporate managements share their outlook when they report 2022 earnings. That collective optimism or pessimism will determine the near-term path for stock prices.
  • January 6, 2023 – A calendar flipping to a new year causes some near-term movement for beaten down stocks and yesteryear’s winners, but the economic landscape does not change overnight. Data so far this week has been constructive, with ADP employment metrics, job losses and other reports coming in stronger than expected. Good news is bad news for anyone hoping the Fed will ease in 2023.
  • January 4, 2023 – The die has been cast. The Fed in 2023 will finish its work to defeat inflation. While that may mean short-term pressure on economic growth and corporate earnings, the end result will be better times and lower inflation ahead. Although there might be some pain early in the year, the investment outlook will brighten considerably as the year unfolds.

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