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Economic Update 2022

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

In this video, Jim Vogt, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Tower Bridge Advisors, discusses the outlook for the markets in the months ahead. Inflation and Fed tightening are front and center issues, but supply chain, corporate earnings and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a major impact as well. What will the New Normal …

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?Read More

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  • October 7, 2022 – It is Jobs Day, yet again. Markets are jumping at any sign of a potential Fed pivot, helping drive stocks higher earlier this week by ~6%. Fed officials have not changed their tune yet. However, we are in the later innings and nearing the inevitable pause where a relief rally will occur. Bargains are starting to show up.
  • October 5, 2022 – Two huge up days in a row put bulls back in charge. Is this the market bottom? Only time will tell. It will largely depend on the severity of the pending economic downturn. But retreating interest rates, and weaking labor market statistics suggest the end to the Fed’s cycle of higher interest rates is nearing an end. That is at least one key ingredient to the end of a market downturn.
  • October 3, 2022 – Interest rates may finally have reached a level that can be labeled restrictive. The 10-Year Treasury yield touched 4% last week. It may not have to rise much further. The next piece of the puzzle to end the bear market is for earnings expectations to align with an outlook for a flat to moderately weak economy next year. That process will play out through the coming earnings season and possibly extend through year end. Depending on where earnings bottom, the range for the S&P 500 near term would likely be 3200-3600. We are at the top end of that range today. The good news is that months from now investors will be looking past the abyss to more optimistic times.
  • September 30, 2022 – The bear remains in control. Although the Bank of England offered hope that central banks would slow down the pace of tightening, that proved to be short lived. Jobs data in the U.S. was robust; too much so. This led to another risk-off day with all 11 sectors finishing in the red. Recent volatility is picking up steam. Fed officials should take note, but will they?
  • September 28, 2022 – The story is simple. Bond yields keep rising and stocks keep falling. Overnight the Bank of England said it would start to buy long-duration bonds to try and stem the tide. That won’t work. The good news is that long bonds now have a real cost, about 1.5% according to TIPS spreads. They don’t have to go much higher to slow the economy. Witness housing that keys off of long rates as do stock prices. Interest rate policy is starting to impact the real economy. As both GDP and inflation slow, the day the pressure can be relieved gets closer, and so does the end of the bear market. But in bear markets, the short-term pain is always worst at the end. Weak hands capitulate and sell. Long term investors find bargains.
  • September 26, 2022 – One might think that the sharp rise in interest rates is crushing our economy. So far, that isn’t true, except for housing. It will take further increases in rates to reduce inflationary pressures. That has been the message of the Fed. Markets are finally reacting. Rates today are about neutral. By year end, they will be starting to squeeze growth. Markets have discounted a lot of this. Perhaps there is further 10% to the downside based on an expectation of a soft landing or mild recession and interest rates staying within the bounds suggested by Fed policy.
  • September 23, 2022 – Another Fed meeting comes and goes. Markets are finally starting to believe what Chairman Powell and his team have been saying for weeks. Interest rates are going to be higher for longer. More pain is coming. Job losses are going to increase. Home prices need to come down. Inflation is the only focus today. It is not all bad news though, especially for long-term thinkers. A lot of upcoming negative headlines are being priced in.
  • September 21, 2022 – Today concludes the 2-day FOMC meeting. The key for investors is Jerome Powell’s post-meeting commentary. Lately, he has talked of enduring some economic pain to bring inflation down. How much pain? The Fed will whip inflation. The question on investors’ minds is the extent of the collateral damage. Powell’s view will set the tone until Q3 earnings season begins in about three weeks.
  • September 19, 2022 – The Fed believes it is at the neutral rate of interest now. By Wednesday afternoon, it will be well above. Tightening will now begin in earnest. The odds of recession have increased. Longer term, once the Fed returns to neutral, rates should revert to levels that give owners of bonds real returns plus a risk premium. That probably suggests levels not far from where rates are today.
  • September 16, 2022 – Major averages are testing critical support levels following another rough day for Tech stocks. Inflation continues to confound the Fed, which could result in the ultimate policy error…raising rates and tightening liquidity into an impending recession. Earnings updates from FedEx and Adobe are not helping matters at all.

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