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Economic Update 2022

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

In this video, Jim Vogt, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Tower Bridge Advisors, discusses the outlook for the markets in the months ahead. Inflation and Fed tightening are front and center issues, but supply chain, corporate earnings and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a major impact as well. What will the New Normal …

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?Read More

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  • June 24, 2022 – The battle to tame inflation has likely hit its apex as market fears now shift to whether a recession is coming and how strong it will be. Stocks and bonds price in what is a base case for 9-12 months from now. With interest rates collapsing, oil finally coming down, and many commodity prices getting crushed, one has to wonder if we still have a lot more negative economic news coming and how bad a recession might become.
  • June 22, 2022 – Yesterday’s relief rally looks to be another bear market one-day wonder. Any enduring rally needs to align with better economic news or signs that inflation is slowing. Oil prices seem to be stabilizing around the $110 per barrel range and other commodities have given back some ground lately. Those changes haven’t flowed through to retail prices yet, but they should. When signs are clearer there is room for stocks to rally.
  • June 17, 2022 – Fed officials gave what the markets priced in just 48 hours earlier, a 75bps increase in Fed Funds. This pull-forward of rate hikes comes in response to a robust job market and inflationary reports showing no slowdown in the economy or pricing. The fear now is that central banks only have one way to stop inflation, force a recession.
  • June 15, 2022 – For months the Fed has been behind the curve when it comes to fighting inflation. As investors we have all paid the price. Today’s FOMC meeting gives it one more chance to be forceful, to roll out the heavy artillery. A 75-basis point rate increase is expected, but the real story will emanate from Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC press conference. There are already early signs of a slowing economy. The Fed simply has to convince investors that it will do whatever is needed to defeat inflation. It has talked the talk before. Investors want more details. If he can convince investors he has the right strategy and enough tools, markets can stabilize.
  • June 13, 2022 – Friday’s report on Consumer Prices told us all that the fight against inflation will be harder than previously anticipated. This week, the Fed will increase interest rates again. It may suggest the ultimate Fed Funds rate this cycle will need to be higher than previously thought. None of this is good news for equity investors.
  • June 10, 2022 – CPI headlines should dominate trading action today. Markets have been trading in a tight, slightly negative range after an oversold bounce brought major averages up ~10% over the prior few weeks. Investors hope that today’s report offers positive glimpses at what we should expect over the slower summer months with respect to lower inflation.
  • June 8, 2022 – We are in that quiet zone between earnings seasons with little important economic news. Stocks move up one day and down the next. While Friday’s CPI report and next week’s FOMC meeting will be highlights, the collective outcome of second quarter earnings reports to be announced a month from now will be key to the market’s direction over the summer. Risks remain elevated.
  • June 6, 2022 – Last week stocks fluctuated in a seesaw pattern with a slight downward bias after the spectacular recovery two weeks ago. Obviously, a 6% weekly move can’t be sustained for long. It was encouraging to see markets act as well as they did in the face of uneven corporate and economic news.
  • June 3, 2022 – A confusing “hurricane” update from Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan#. A lowered earnings projection from Microsoft#. Profit headwinds for Salesforce relative to expectations. Lackluster jobs report from ADP on private payrolls. An unexpected departure from Facebook’s# C-Suite. 10-year Treasury rates jumping 20bps back towards 3%. A lot of negative headlines, but stocks are holding their own…so far.
  • June 1, 2022 – Stocks lost a bit of ground yesterday after a sterling week that essentially erased all of May’s losses. At yesterday’s close both the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged for May, after last week’s gains of about 6% wiped out losses for the month. For the year-to-date, however, all three major averages remain solidly in correction territory, with the NASDAQ still in the midst of its own bear market, down well over 20%.

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