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June 1, 2020 – May’s optimism now will have to be matched against June’s reality. All states have started to reopen. Optimism for a quick restart is high. We will know in a few weeks how valid that optimism may be. What we do know is that virus fears will hold back some recovery. We also know that businesses that have adapted to change quickly have been the most successful.
May 29, 2020 – The market rally continues to broaden this week pushing many stocks above fair value. Fed liquidity is inflating stocks well before the goods news arrives. When stimulus measures and unemployment benefits run out, the picture becomes less bullish. However, momentum is powerful and “Don’t Fight the Fed” is the Golden Rule.
May 27, 2020 – The joy of reopening, combined with ongoing infusion of new capital from central banks, has stock investors euphoric. But the Fed can’t continue to buy securities at its present pace for long, and many businesses may not come all the way back quickly. While some correction might be necessary, a return to anywhere near the March lows is unlikely.
May 2020 Economic Update – After COVID-19
May 22, 2020 – The rally broadened out this week as retail earnings reports rolled in. Individual stock reaction was mixed. Encouraging vaccine trial data and consumers’ willingness to venture out of their homes is paramount to economic data bouncing back. Trade war rhetoric is not helping.
May 20, 2020 – Stocks fell sharply late in yesterday’s session, after the progress Moderna announced on Monday in the development of a new Covid-19 vaccine was questioned. On Monday, stocks rose by more than 3% after the company said an early Phase I test of its proposed vaccine produced antibodies in all patients without significant safety risks. But some sophisticated scientists questioned the lack of supporting data and said they had doubts. Ergo a seesaw market once again.
May 18, 2020 – Stock market optimism coincides with an accelerated pace of reopening the economy. Within weeks, stores, restaurants, gyms and spas will restart operations albeit at a measured pace. Hopefully, summer will allow this to happen without a violent resurgence of Covid-19.
May 15, 2020 – Volatility is creeping back after a massive rally. Positive steps are ongoing but this will be a choppy recovery. Good news has been priced in. The pace of the recovery will determine the market’s next move.
May 13, 2020 – As more states reopen, facts will replace speculation. We will also witness a lot of unintended consequences, some good and some not so good. Expectations will be replaced by reality. The spread between the two will govern how stocks react over the coming months.
May 11, 2020 – As more states are getting set to reopen, investors are watching a new phase of the economic response to Covid-19. We won’t know for several weeks or even months whether we are reopening too fast or not fast enough. But we certainly will have more facts by mid-summer. Public health officials still warn of a possible spike in the fall. If that happens, markets will react. If not, April was probably the low point.

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Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management, Registered Investment Advisors

101 West Elm Street, Suite 355
Conshohocken, PA 19428
Phone: 610.260.2200
Toll Free: 866.959.2200

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