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Jim Vogt

May 2021 Economic Update – “A Look Ahead”

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Market Outlook, Tower Bridge Advisors, Jim Vogt, Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management, Economic Update, Inflation and Corporate Earnings Investment Markets, Cryptocurrency Portfolio

Interest rates, inflation and corporate earnings are key indicators of the health of the economy and the trajectory of the investment markets. In this video, Co-Chief Investment Officer Jim Vogt discusses the current state of the economy and the outlook for the months ahead.  

May 2021 Economic Update – “A Look Ahead”Read More

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  • January 14, 2022 – Inflation and interest rates remain front and center in investor’s minds. Inflation reports this week continued to be extremely elevated and above most expectations. In response, markets are basically flat on the week, while interest rates actually ticked lower. Is inflation priced in? What could change from here?
  • January 12, 2022 – The battle to beat inflation hasn’t begun yet. The Fed won’t start until March when it stops buying bonds and starts to raise rates, but the inflationary forces appear to be growing. The December CPI being reported today will offer answers.
  • January 10, 2022 – If there was a message last week, it was that speculative fever is dissipating as the Fed winds down its pace of bond purchases. No one knows when the purging of speculation will end but it probably will be with a thud, not a whimper. Market rotation to financials, industrials and energy names suggests the economy continues to thrive despite Omicron. The rotation can go a bit farther. The high growth sector got very overpriced, outpacing cyclical and value stocks for years, and it could take several more months for the rotation to run its course, allowing for some intermittent bounces and reversals. The overall market is down only modestly as the speculative fringes blow apart.
  • January 7, 2022 – Increased volatility was expected for 2022, and markets are already giving investors something to think about. Fed minutes showed an increased desire to qualm inflation while pointing to less emphasis on job gains going forward. Quantitative tightening may be here sooner than many hoped.
  • January 5, 2022 – Markets have started the year rotating out of highflyers into industrials, banks, oil companies and other cyclicals. It is an acceleration that was already in place late last year. Until the purge of the frothiest names is complete, this rotation is likely to continue.
  • January 3, 2022 – 2022 will be a battleground with the tailwind of rising earnings confronting the threat of higher interest rates. It will also be a big election year, one with significant pending Supreme Court decisions, and perhaps most important, a new playbook for the Federal Reserve. January normally offers clues as to what lies ahead.
  • December 31, 2021 – The final trading day of 2021 is upon us, and what a wild year it has been. While the major averages showed substantial gains, yet again, underneath the surface paints a much more confusing picture. While earnings will continue to impress into 2022, interest rates, Fed tightening, and inflation point towards more uncertainty as the economic cycle transitions to a new normal.
  • December 29, 2021 – 2022 will be a battle of higher earnings versus higher inflation. We expect both to exceed expectations. 5% real growth without any population growth means more real consumption per capita. The Fed is slowly withdrawing stimulus, but the impact will still be felt through next year. Either the Fed is right, and inflation will fade quickly in 2022, or it isn’t taking the inflationary pressures in place seriously. As 2022 progresses, the answer will be resolved. The markets’ outcomes will depend on the answer.
  • December 27, 2021 – Looking forward, it is a battle of growing earnings against persistent inflation. Since the stock market, like most economic activity, works in a nominal world, some inflation is good. But inflation has exceeded expectations for so many months that the market risk is that persistent inflation ultimately requires a stronger Federal Reserve response.
  • December 22, 2021 – As Wall Street fully digests the likely economic impact of Omicron, it is likely to quickly revert its attention back to growth, inflation, and interest rates. As we look to 2022, growth will wane a bit, and hopefully so will inflation. Where the 10-year Treasury ends up a year from now will likely be the greatest determinant of stock market performance.

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