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Jim Vogt

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

In this video, Jim Vogt, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Tower Bridge Advisors, discusses the outlook for the markets in the months ahead. Inflation and Fed tightening are front and center issues, but supply chain, corporate earnings and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a major impact as well. What will the New Normal …

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?Read More

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  • December 8, 2023 – Markets rallied yesterday but remained in tepid anticipation of today’s employment report and next week’s CPI report. The November employment report came in close to expectations with gains of 199,000. Not sure from the early read how much those numbers were enhanced by the end of the auto and Hollywood strikes. Markets reacted negatively to the report as month-over-month wages increased slightly more than anticipated. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% as the labor participation rate rose to a pre-pandemic high.
  • December 6, 2023 – December has started off a lot slower than November, at least in the equity markets. While long-term interest rates continue to drift lower, so do economic expectations. Valuation also comes into play after a rally of close to 10% off recent lows. The key question over the next few months is how fast is the economy decelerating?
  • December 4, 2023 – Amid a period of no economic news, stocks and bonds continue to ride a wave of momentum. Near-term problems, like higher interest rates and a pending recession, appear to be receding while long-term problems, like surging deficits and out of control government spending are ignored until they become disruptive. While the long-term problems won’t disrupt the party at the moment, they will have to be addressed at some point.
  • December 1, 2023 – Stocks finished November with a bang. December is usually a kind time for equity investors, although adding to gains of close to 10% will be challenging. While we will get employment data a week from today and a CPI report the following Tuesday, the die appears to have been cast. Markets now expect inflation is dying and the Fed, which meets again within two weeks, is finished raising rates.
  • November 29, 2023 – Stocks continue to drift higher as the yield on 10-year Treasuries drifts lower. Seasonally, this is usually one of the strongest times of the year for stocks. While upward momentum has slowed lately, it hasn’t stopped. Perhaps the biggest news late yesterday was the passing of Charlie Munger at age 99. For decades, he was Warren Buffett’s investing partner at Berkshire Hathaway. While Buffett was always the consummate value investor, it was Munger who convinced Buffett that truly great companies don’t come cheaply. One can thank Munger for steering Berkshire toward Apple.
  • November 27, 2023 – A nice Thanksgiving weekend ended on a high note with another Eagles come from behind win. It was a weekend for the birds. Looking ahead, the corporate calendar is slim, beyond a bunch of early December analyst days which will impact individual stocks. The key employment and inflation numbers come out between December 8-12 just in front of the FOMC meeting that concludes December 13. Seasonally, the next several weeks are good for stocks. Hopefully, the coming data will support that bias.
  • November 22, 2023 – In a dull Thanksgiving week, two stories dominate: the turmoil at OpenAI, and the spectacular earnings at Nvidia. The two companies are linked. The explosive demand for generative AI has led to explosive sales growth at Nvidia. Alas, on Wall Street, it’s all about how expectations match up to reality. Expectations have exploded over the past year. Do they have further to go or are they getting ahead of future reality? That is always the dilemma investors face.
  • November 20, 2023 – This is likely to be a quiet holiday-shortened week. The big corporate news over the weekend was the ouster of Sam Altman as CEO of the leading AI company. The big earnings news this week will come from Nvidia tomorrow after the close. Expectations are high given Nvidia’s role as the producer of the most effective chips used to perform AI searches and create solutions.
  • November 17, 2023 – While changing interest rates remain the dominant influence on stock prices, weak earnings from Wal-Mart and Cisco were headwinds yesterday. But rates are taking over this morning pushing futures higher once again.
  • November 15, 2023 – Yesterday’s CPI report punctuated the notion that this rally is for real. Inflation is on its way to defeat, and later next year the economy will see blue skies ahead. Short-term issues like strikes and government shutdown threats are being resolved. The post-Covid impact is waning and the possibility of a soft landing is increasing. The sharp rally may be a bit overdone, but the likelihood that the October lows are the true bottom keeps increasing.

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