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Jim Vogt

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

In this video, Jim Vogt, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Tower Bridge Advisors, discusses the outlook for the markets in the months ahead. Inflation and Fed tightening are front and center issues, but supply chain, corporate earnings and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a major impact as well. What will the New Normal …

February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?Read More

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  • June 2, 2023 – Stocks traded higher yesterday following the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Bill in the House as well as some dovish comments by a Fed Governor. Last night, the debt Bill was passed in a bi-partisan vote in the Senate. Now the Bill will go to President Biden to be signed, which will avert a much-feared debt default.
  • May 31, 2023 – Congress now has a week to pass the debt ceiling agreement. While there will be a lot of verbal whining and expressions of righteous indignation, the majority will pass a bill that is likely to have little long-term economic consequence. Once the bill is passed, attention will turn to the mid-June FOMC meeting and the increasing likelihood of yet another interest rate increase.
  • May 26, 2023 – Wednesday’s earnings announcement by Nvidia shocked markets with the speed at which generative AI is being adopted. Even regulators can’t slow it down. Every software developer now has to incorporate AI into everything. The race suddenly got a lot more heated. To win requires the fastest chips and the best software development tools. It is way too early to identify the best products that will evolve but markets yesterday were quick to identify those that have the best building blocks to get to the finish line.
  • May 24, 2023 – The latest version of the “Fast and Furious” movie series is off to a good start. But it doesn’t draw like it used too. We have seen this plot too many times. Sounds like a repeat of the debt ceiling crisis! We don’t know the exact ending but it is unlikely to be a bond default. That doesn’t mean a solution will be without consequences. Interest rates are starting to rise again and may continue after resolution as the Treasury floods the market with new bonds. This isn’t a great short-term backdrop for equities.
  • May 22, 2023 – As go debt ceiling negotiation talks, so goes the financial markets. So far, markets are sanguine, seeing the talks mostly as political theatrics. But that could change this week if no solution is in sight before we all leave for an extended Memorial Day weekend. Whether we leave Friday with a smile or a frown is anyone’s guess at the moment.
  • May 19, 2023 – As the debt ceiling concerns lessen, attention reverts back to earnings. Key retailers aren’t reporting stellar results but their stocks are taking weak guidance in stride, a sign much of the pending bad news is already discounted. That should put a floor underneath the stock market. At the same time, money keeps flowing toward the same technology names. Chasing momentum can be dangerous.
  • May 17, 2023 – Right now, stock and bond prices are slaves to the progress of efforts to extend the debt ceiling. Yesterday afternoon’s White House meeting was more productive than last week’s. Thus, futures are up this morning, but the job is far from done. An inevitable 11th hour moment lies ahead. Hopefully, a solution will emerge, but in this bifurcated Congress, risks of miscalculation are elevated.
  • May 15, 2023 – The debt ceiling approaches but markets don’t seem to care. Perhaps they are right, and a compromise solution is just around the corner. But while June 1 is only a bit over two weeks away, any compromise must pass Congress. That may not be a simple task. If no progress is apparent before Biden leaves for overseas, expect markets to start to show concern.
  • May 12, 2023 – While mega caps keep gaining steam, the average stock is now down for the year. Eight of the last nine trading sessions have been negative for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Fed may be done raising rates, but an all-clear signal is far off in the distance. Transitions are hard!
  • May 10, 2023 – Stocks have stayed within a narrow range awaiting today’s CPI report. Yesterday’s White House meeting to find a solution to the debt ceiling crisis was an expected dud. All sides seem to expect an 11th hour solution but no one has found the solution yet. Congress normally reacts to pending crises at the proverbial 11th hour. Investors still favor that outcome this time around, but the black swan risk of failure grows larger as the deadline approaches.

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