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February 2022 Economic Update – The New Normal?

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

In this video, Jim Vogt, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Tower Bridge Advisors, discusses the outlook for the markets in the months ahead. Inflation and Fed tightening are front and center issues, but supply chain, corporate earnings and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a major impact as well. What will the New Normal look like?

 

 

Tower Bridge Advisors manages over $1.3 Billion for individuals, families and select institutions with $1 Million or more of investable assets. We build portfolios of individual securities customized for each client's specific goals and objectives. Contact Nick Filippo (610-260-2222, nfilippo@towerbridgeadvisors.com) to learn more or to set up a complimentary portfolio review.

# – This security is owned by the author of this report or accounts under his management at Tower Bridge Advisors.

Additional information on companies in this report is available on request. This report is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing company, industry or security mentioned herein. This firm or its officers, stockholders, employees and clients, in the normal course of business, may have or acquire a position including options, if any, in the securities mentioned. This communication shall not be deemed to constitute an offer, or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. The information above has been obtained from sources believed reliable, but is not necessarily complete and is not guaranteed. This report is prepared for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Opinions are subject to change without notice.

Filed Under: Economic Updates, Video Tagged With: Economic Update 2022, Inflation expectations, Jim Vogt, market outlook, Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management, portfolio management, Tower Bridge Advisors

Previous Post: « January 10, 2022 – If there was a message last week, it was that speculative fever is dissipating as the Fed winds down its pace of bond purchases. No one knows when the purging of speculation will end but it probably will be with a thud, not a whimper. Market rotation to financials, industrials and energy names suggests the economy continues to thrive despite Omicron. The rotation can go a bit farther. The high growth sector got very overpriced, outpacing cyclical and value stocks for years, and it could take several more months for the rotation to run its course, allowing for some intermittent bounces and reversals. The overall market is down only modestly as the speculative fringes blow apart.
Next Post: March 7, 2022 – While the war outcome continues down a path leading to a Russian occupation of Ukraine, the economic costs are becoming both starker and more apparent. Gasoline prices are rising close to $0.50 per week. If anything, the pace is accelerating. Wheat, aluminum, copper and palladium are spiking as well. These root commodity price increases will flow into a massive array of products. Inflation is quickly becoming more supply constrained than demand driven. The Fed’s weaponry can’t increase supply. »

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  • August 21, 2025 – This Friday we will receive commentary from the Federal Reserve after its annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The central-bank gathering has sometimes been a venue for marking shifts in Fed policy. Last year Fed Chairman Powell used it to signal that rate cuts were coming, and followed through the next month. The Snake River, which runs through Jackson Hole, provides an apt backdrop for the Fed’s meeting where the waters can be turbulent and winding. In the meantime, technology stocks have retreated this week and a number of consumer-focused companies have provided both encouraging and uncertain signals.
  • August 18, 2025 – The noise of front-page news doesn’t seem to coincide with record stock prices. War, ICE raids, violent storms and tariffs may be the topics of the Sunday talk shows, but the stock market cares more about earnings and interest rates. Earnings are rising and interest rates are stable. Will that continue? Earnings growth should slow a bit as the full impact of tariffs hits. While the Fed Funds rates should start to decline this fall, markets will focus on changes in the 10-year Treasury yield more than the Fed Funds rate.
  • August 14, 2025 – The market is increasingly divided, with a strong AI-driven rally on one side and a weakening consumer economy on the other. This contradiction creates a significant risk of a sudden economic downturn or stagflation, as soaring tech valuations may be unsustainable without broader economic support.
  • August 11, 2025 – There is an expression that rationality requires separating the wheat from the chaff. In Wall Street, to be a successful investor, it is necessary to separate hype from reality. That is particularly important as speculative fever rises. Some of the hype is real; some is nonsense. Don’t simply follow consensus. As investors you invest in companies, not hype, not single products, hot today but cold as ice tomorrow. Think rationally and you will be a successful investor.
  • August 7, 2025 – Football is considered a game of inches. Consider the “Brotherly Shove,” popularized by the Philadelphia Eagles, which is a play used to gain very short yardage and advance down the field. In order to counter this offense, defensive opponents have employed various tactics, but without much success. Two consumer-focused companies, McDonalds and Disney, recently reported quarterly earnings, and are slugging it out on the field as consumer preferences change and these companies try to adapt.
  • August 4, 2025 – Confusing economic reports on GDP and the labor market can be decoded to show that growth in the first half of 2025 was muted while inflation was well contained before the full impact of tariffs. If those data trends continue, look for one to three 25-basis point rate cuts before the end of 2025. That outlook may change with subsequent data but it is increasingly clear that an economy that has proven so resilient may need a bit more help to offset the impact of tariffs and significantly lower population growth.
  • July 31, 2025 – The U.S. economy demonstrated a strong rebound in Q2 2025 with 3.0% GDP growth. Tech giants Microsoft and Meta significantly exceeded earnings expectations, fueled by the ongoing AI boom and robust cloud and digital advertising performance. While the current AI-driven market rally shows parallels to the dot-com era’s speculative growth, today’s tech giants exhibit stronger financial fundamentals than many during the earlier boom. Investors should balance the allure of high growth with valuation discipline and diversification to mitigate risks in this dynamic market.
  • July 28, 2025 – The world looks pretty healthy but rising speculation elevates our concern. When the amount of corporate money flowing into bitcoin is twice the amount raised in initial public offerings to date, that gets our attention. With that said the focus this week will be on earnings and a slew of economic data on inflation, interest rates, and employment, all of which can be market moving.
  • July 24, 2025 – Like the game of Go in China, or Igo in Japan, the evolving tariff negotiations between the U.S. and our trading partners are creating a constantly changing gameboard and continue to dominate the news cycle. Markets reacted positively yesterday to indications that Japan’s tariffs would be capped at 15%, less than the 25% expected, and a potential deal with the European Union. Tariffs are already having an impact on corporate earnings and outlooks, although equity markets continue to gain ground.
  • July 21, 2025 – Last week was a quiet week for news. The real heart of earnings season starts to kick in this week. Meanwhile the new crypto legislation signed into law last week is likely to change our lives a lot more than what we will learn from a few earnings reports.

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