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Tower Bridge Advisors

March 7, 2022 – While the war outcome continues down a path leading to a Russian occupation of Ukraine, the economic costs are becoming both starker and more apparent. Gasoline prices are rising close to $0.50 per week. If anything, the pace is accelerating. Wheat, aluminum, copper and palladium are spiking as well. These root commodity price increases will flow into a massive array of products. Inflation is quickly becoming more supply constrained than demand driven. The Fed’s weaponry can’t increase supply.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Stocks fell last week for the fourth week in a row, a combination of inflation fears and the war in Ukraine. Bond yields fell amid a flight to safety. The news from Ukraine is discouraging, to say the least, but it isn’t unexpected. Russia has overwhelming military advantages and continues to make progress in its …

March 7, 2022 – While the war outcome continues down a path leading to a Russian occupation of Ukraine, the economic costs are becoming both starker and more apparent. Gasoline prices are rising close to $0.50 per week. If anything, the pace is accelerating. Wheat, aluminum, copper and palladium are spiking as well. These root commodity price increases will flow into a massive array of products. Inflation is quickly becoming more supply constrained than demand driven. The Fed’s weaponry can’t increase supply.Read More

January 10, 2022 – If there was a message last week, it was that speculative fever is dissipating as the Fed winds down its pace of bond purchases. No one knows when the purging of speculation will end but it probably will be with a thud, not a whimper. Market rotation to financials, industrials and energy names suggests the economy continues to thrive despite Omicron. The rotation can go a bit farther. The high growth sector got very overpriced, outpacing cyclical and value stocks for years, and it could take several more months for the rotation to run its course, allowing for some intermittent bounces and reversals. The overall market is down only modestly as the speculative fringes blow apart.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

It was a tough week for stocks particularly on the NASDAQ. The speculative end of the market took the biggest hit as bond yields rose in line with continued economic growth. I noted last week the relevance of the January barometer. While not always valid, there is a trend that says, “as goes January, so …

January 10, 2022 – If there was a message last week, it was that speculative fever is dissipating as the Fed winds down its pace of bond purchases. No one knows when the purging of speculation will end but it probably will be with a thud, not a whimper. Market rotation to financials, industrials and energy names suggests the economy continues to thrive despite Omicron. The rotation can go a bit farther. The high growth sector got very overpriced, outpacing cyclical and value stocks for years, and it could take several more months for the rotation to run its course, allowing for some intermittent bounces and reversals. The overall market is down only modestly as the speculative fringes blow apart.Read More

October 11, 2021 – Markets remain volatile as growth slows, interest rates rise, and Washington politics remain a mess. Until supply chain problems are resolved the picture is unlikely to change. Demand is strong but much of it is unfilled. Perhaps it is time for Washington to take notice.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Stocks gave up some ground on Friday but still finished the week with decent gains. Trading remained volatile. Leadership rotated between growth and value stocks several times depending on the economic news of the day and trends in interest rates. The week ended with 10-year Treasury yields crossing the 1.60% barrier for the first time …

October 11, 2021 – Markets remain volatile as growth slows, interest rates rise, and Washington politics remain a mess. Until supply chain problems are resolved the picture is unlikely to change. Demand is strong but much of it is unfilled. Perhaps it is time for Washington to take notice.Read More

October 4, 2021 – A tough September is not a harbinger of what’s to come. The Delta variant is fading, and interest rates are not likely to rise as fast as they did in September. Inflation concerns remain. However, that should mute future upside. Higher earnings, on the other hand, will mute the downside.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Stocks rallied at the end of a dismal September. While growth in September deteriorated a bit thanks to the persistence of the Delta variant of Covid-19, stocks fell due to a combination of issues, a slowdown in growth being just one. Interest rates rose, the Fed hinted at tapering bond purchases before year end, and …

October 4, 2021 – A tough September is not a harbinger of what’s to come. The Delta variant is fading, and interest rates are not likely to rise as fast as they did in September. Inflation concerns remain. However, that should mute future upside. Higher earnings, on the other hand, will mute the downside.Read More

October 1, 2021 – Concerns, they are aplenty. Markets ended September on a sour note, as major averages tested last week’s spike lows. The key to the next 5% move revolves around equities holding near current support levels. Near-term headwinds are compounding, pointing to more downside risk. Rest assured, this bull market is not over yet.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Another quarter is in the books as we enter October which historically has been a favorable seasonal time to be invested. This is especially true in years where stock market returns are already generous. History says we should expect a solid finish for 2021. Even after a nearly 5% drop across the board in September, …

October 1, 2021 – Concerns, they are aplenty. Markets ended September on a sour note, as major averages tested last week’s spike lows. The key to the next 5% move revolves around equities holding near current support levels. Near-term headwinds are compounding, pointing to more downside risk. Rest assured, this bull market is not over yet.Read More

June 18, 2021-Fed announcements usually take a few days before the market figures out what they really said. This time is no different as rates initially spiked but made a 180 degree turn yesterday. Winners and losers in the stock market also flip-flopped. What to do now?

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Market participants, in both stocks and bonds, waited with bated breath for the conclusion to the 2-day Federal Reserve Meeting. After two straight months of worrisome inflationary data, lower than expected employment reports and a continued rise in consumer spending, many were frightened at the prospect of the Federal Reserve changing their stance and pulling …

June 18, 2021-Fed announcements usually take a few days before the market figures out what they really said. This time is no different as rates initially spiked but made a 180 degree turn yesterday. Winners and losers in the stock market also flip-flopped. What to do now?Read More

May 21, 2021 – After a 3-week hiatus, buyers came rushing back to the markets. Technology stocks rebounded the most, coinciding with a slight reversal in interest rates. Taper talk is coming, and we examine what that means for markets from here.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

After three straight days of losses in the overall market, bargain hunters stepped up to the plate yesterday with technology stocks leading the charge higher. The Nasdaq bounced back 1.8%, pointing towards hope of at least a short-term bottom after another mini-correction. The Dow closed up 0.5% and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index gained …

May 21, 2021 – After a 3-week hiatus, buyers came rushing back to the markets. Technology stocks rebounded the most, coinciding with a slight reversal in interest rates. Taper talk is coming, and we examine what that means for markets from here.Read More

February 22, 2021 – The biggest factor this morning is the ongoing rise in 10-year bond yields. Higher yields mean lower P/Es for stocks. They impact growth stocks more than value names. As the economy recovers in a rising rate environment, watch for better relative performance from value sectors and a sharp headwind to excessive speculative activity.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Last week was highlighted by a continued move higher for long-term bond yields, a modest correction among high flying tech stocks, and ongoing volatility in the speculative fringes of the stock market. The short squeeze targets like GameStop continued to move back down in the direction of fair value, while SPACs continued to raise billions …

February 22, 2021 – The biggest factor this morning is the ongoing rise in 10-year bond yields. Higher yields mean lower P/Es for stocks. They impact growth stocks more than value names. As the economy recovers in a rising rate environment, watch for better relative performance from value sectors and a sharp headwind to excessive speculative activity.Read More

November 22, 2021 – Record highs in the stock market masked an overall deterioration as slowing growth and rising costs impact more companies. While some of the pressures may be peaking or have already peaked, the clear sailing witnessed last spring is unlikely to return.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Lockdowns in Austria sent the Dow and S&P 500 lower on Friday although the NASDAQ continued to rise. Interest rates remained within a tight range. While stocks continue to rise, look at the chart below. It is a chart of the Russell 3000, perhaps the market’s broadest relevant index containing, as the name implies, 3,000 …

November 22, 2021 – Record highs in the stock market masked an overall deterioration as slowing growth and rising costs impact more companies. While some of the pressures may be peaking or have already peaked, the clear sailing witnessed last spring is unlikely to return.Read More

November 17, 2021- It’s amazing how well corporations have navigated a minefield littered with disease, shortages, and rising inflation. The ability to pivot quickly is the hallmark of good leadership.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Stocks continued to move higher yesterday. The Dow was aided by a strong performance by Home Depot# after it reported better than expected earnings. Indeed, the theme this earnings season is the skill demonstrated by corporations in managing through a minefield created by Covid-19’s Delta variant, massive political uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, and sharply rising …

November 17, 2021- It’s amazing how well corporations have navigated a minefield littered with disease, shortages, and rising inflation. The ability to pivot quickly is the hallmark of good leadership.Read More

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  • March 29, 2023 – Banks stocks are an important market indicator, usually outperforming as the market recovery begins. Current bank stock valuations suggest upside for the long term, but until investors are satisfied that banks are adequately reserved to withstand economic weakness, the volatility will continue. We take a deeper look at bank loan portfolios and the position of commercial loans.
  • March 27, 2023 – A hectic week ended with markets close to where they began. Banks continued to be a weak spot. Lower oil prices impacted the energy sector. Overall, the economy still seems resilient, but recent stress will impact activity as banks tighten loan standards and corporations seek liquidity.
  • March 24, 2023 – Contradictions abound as we close out the week following another volatile reaction to a Fed meeting. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, even though banks are begging for cash at the discount window at levels above the peak in 2008. Numerous officials preach that bank deposits are safe, but Secretary Yellen offered less enthusiasm than hoped for with her Congressional testimony. All of this adds up to more uncertainty and a range-bound market.
  • March 22, 2023 – Hang on to your hats. It’s FOMC day! Fed officials face a tough call, on whether to raise rates amid current banking turmoil. Markets believe they will. But the rate hiking cycle is nearing an end. Even assuming one more increase in May, summer inflation should have cooled enough to stop the rate hikes. The strong stock market rally of the past two days suggests a belief that the cost of the current banking turmoil can be contained. Whether that is hope or truth remains to be seen. It is rare for financial crises to end until the Fed changes direction.
  • March 20, 2023 – UBS buys out Credit Suisse and disaster is averted once again, but markets remain skittish. First Republic seems next in line. All this comes in front of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Crises don’t end until the Fed changes course. A pause is in order. That would contradict previous signals. A pause doesn’t have to concede that the fight against inflation is over. It would merely be a pause. If bank failure fears can be contained, another rise in rates in May would be possible, if needed. But there is a lot of evidence to suggest it won’t be. The stock market’s course near-term is clearly binary depending on what the Fed does Wednesday.
  • March 17, 2023 – While banks are scrounging for support, ancillary effects are becoming priced into cyclical sectors of the market as lower interest rates bring investors back to growth leaders. Quadruple options expiration and further bank concerns will drive more volatility to end this crazy week. A record breaking rush to the Fed Discount Window shows how desperate some banks are to cover recent withdrawals.
  • March 15, 2023 – Stocks rebounded yesterday, stemming losses from last week, but the recovery may be short-lived as European bank stocks are under severe pressure this morning. The failures of two banks in the last week may be the end of the crisis or the tip of the iceberg. We won’t know that for days or weeks. In the meantime, markets hate uncertainty, and the likelihood of recession has risen. Beware the Ides of March.
  • March 13, 2023 – The Fed and FDIC stepped in over the weekend to create a new lending program to save depositors of two large banks that failed since Friday. That’s an important first step, but the rules of engagement in the banking industry have changed. Banks will have to pay depositors to retain their money. The same will go for stock brokers. We are witnessing what happens when the Fed is forced to change the money landscape too quickly. Every tightening cycle has its crisis. We are in the midst of one now. Crises happen at the end of a cycle, a consequence of earlier actions. Now the Fed needs to find a new path to secure the economy and fight inflation.
  • March 10, 2023 – It is Friday Jobs Day yet again! Never before have so many backward-looking reports meant so much for markets. February CPI is next in line this coming Tuesday. Fed Chair Powell has not really changed much of his commentary; the Fed is data dependent and the Fed Funds rate will be higher for longer. However, recent stress in the banking sector may throw a wrench in their plans to raise rates much higher.
  • March 8, 2023- Fed Chair Jerome Powell spooked markets increasing the odds of another 50-basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate later this month, but calmer inflation numbers over the next 10 days could either calm or reinforce those odds. Meanwhile, both stocks and bonds remain rangebound despite yesterday’s sharp price drops.

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