Major averages were slightly lower yesterday but came with a lot of underlying back and forth action. Changes are happening across the investment landscape. A combination of a recovery from the pandemic, a new political regime, massive money printing and the flipping of the calendar creates a recipe for new leadership from an economic perspective. …
January 13, 2021 – The stock market is set up for a collision of rising earnings and rising interest rates. The latter, if they occur, will reflect higher inflation expectations. While the Fed is doing what it can to seed inflation, so far it is muted. For four decades, waiting for inflation has been akin to waiting for Godot. We will see if this time is different.
Stocks rose slightly yesterday in a mixed session. Tech stocks continued to exhibit weakness as investors continued to rotate into more cyclical names, a sign of optimism about the economy. Over the past several months I have viewed looking forward as a clash between the tailwind of rising earnings versus the headwinds of rising inflation …
January 11, 2021 – Despite the historic events of last week, stocks continued to rise. Earnings and interest rates, not political theatre, are the driver of stock prices. The outlook continues to be favorable as long as real rates remain distinctly negative.
Last week is one most Americans will never forget. But you wouldn’t be able to tell by the behavior of the stock market. Despite the historic events, stocks climbed to new record highs. As incongruous as that might seem, the activity in financial markets punctuates the point I make so often that stocks are a …
January 8, 2021 – New all-time highs everywhere. A new richest man in the world. Interest rates and banks finally breaking out. Crypto is running like a freight train. More IPO’s are coming. Is this 1996 or 1999?
Undeterred by happenings in the Capitol and a possibly less business-friendly agenda, bulls clearly remain in charge. Every major index made news highs yesterday, including the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Cyclical stocks are accelerating and continuing their 4th quarter leadership position. Banks, in particular, are up 10%+ across the board this …
January 6, 2021 – While the Georgia election results are not final, they will probably lead to a flip in Senate leadership to the Democrats. While some fear huge tax increases, a 50-50 split makes that highly unlikely. If anything gets done, it will be accomplished by a centrist coalition, not via strict party-line votes. In the meantime, rising yields align with optimism that the economy can accelerate as well as a rotation toward cyclicals in the stock market.
Stocks recovered much of Monday’s losses yesterday in the runup to the Georgia Senate runoff elections. Those elections are now over. One seat has flipped to the Democratic side. In the other race, with 99% of the vote in, the Democratic candidate leads by about 16,000 votes, roughly the same margin of the Presidential race …
January 4, 2021 -A waning virus, together with an improving economy, set a good backdrop early in 2021. The risks are that investors become too euphoric or that inflation arrives sooner rather than later. The former is always a concern. The latter is unlikely to be evident for at least several more months, if not years.
Good morning, and welcome to 2021. Stocks ended 2020 on a high note, reaching new records once again on the last day of trading. Over the weekend, there was little in the way of new economic news. The front pages were filled with political news in front of this week’s runoff election in Georgia, and …
December 30, 2020 – As 2020 winds down, next year’s outlook is all about where inflation expectations will be a year from now. With a one-year time horizon, it is harder to predict rates than earnings. I assume the pandemic is a bad memory by then. Imbalances in supply and demand need to be sorted out. How that happens will dictate rates and how the stock market will perform in 2021.
Stocks fell modestly yesterday after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell delayed a vote to raise stimulus payments to $2,000 each. Instead, he called for a debate on the issue, as well as the fate of two other controversial topics the President favors but Congress does not. Mr. McConnell has not made it clear how he …
December 28, 2020 – With the signing of the spending and Covid-19 relief bill now complete, this should be a quiet week, void of much in the way of news, barring a shock from out of the blue. While the benefits of the relief bill won’t be reflected in December data that we will see next week, the direction of least resistance remains higher.
After a mixed holiday-abbreviated session on Thursday, President Trump last night signed the budget and Covid-19 relief bills he criticized last week as disgraceful. While his protests may have been another attempt at fermenting chaos, financial markets never took the bait, holding firm as last week came to a close. While the signing eliminates an …
December 21, 2020 – When stocks decline on apparent good news, that’s a sign to pay attention. Last week, the Fed stayed very dovish and said rates would stay ultra-low as far ahead as one could see. Over the weekend, Congress agreed on an additional $900 billion in stimulus relief. But markets appear headed sharply lower this morning. A new viral strain is given as the reason but “sell on the news” might be a better explanation.
Stocks fell Friday amid some profit taking. A contributing factor might have been fear that Congress would fail to pass a stimulus bill. But over the weekend, an agreement was reached. Both the House and Senate will vote on it today and President Trump is expected to sign it. The bill offers some small business …
December 18, 2020 – The Federal Reserve’s last meeting in 2020 did not disappoint investors addicted to cheap money. Lower for longer continues to prop up numerous asset classes. Some mini-bubbles are here while other areas are fairly valued. Let’s dig deeper into the Fed’s comments.
Major averages continued to make new highs pretty much across the board yesterday. Animal spirits keep rising as vaccines are rolled out. An expectation of low rates forever also stokes sideline cash to flow into equities. The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday added fuel to this already booming fire. More on that in a bit. …
December 16, 2020 – As Congress edges closer to a relief bill, the Fed concludes a two-day meeting where it will almost certainly say that continued relief is needed to support a pandemic restricted economy. You don’t take the punch bowl away 9 days before Christmas. Long term, investors will have to judge whether too much easy money will eventually have unintended consequences.
Stocks rose once again amid optimism that Congress would come through with another Covid-19 aid package before it adjourns for Christmas. Government funding runs out at 12:01am Saturday and the hope is that a pandemic relief bill can be attached to an extension of government funding before adjournment. Congress always seems to wait until the …
December 14, 2020 – The IPO boom is heating up to the boiling point. First day valuations are going from extremely high to the non-sensical. We have seen this before and it never has a happy ending. The good news is that the speculative fever is fairly contained and doesn’t have to disrupt an overall solid market. Nonetheless, the Fed should see this as a signal that throwing more oil on a fire isn’t likely to extinguish it.
Stocks closed mixed Friday in a rather quiet trading session. Most of the news surrounded the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine. U.S. shipments start today, but for most Americans who want to take the vaccine, it will likely be springtime before they have a chance. In the meantime, the latest surge continues, although there are …
December 11, 2020 – The IPO market is back in full force as newly minted billionaires are created overnight. Memories of the dotcom craze bring some caution to disciplined investors. Is this time different?
After seeing hugely successful IPO’s from DoorDash and AirBnB, many of us may think back to the late 90’s yet again. Anything with a dotcom attached to the name saw first day trades doubling or tripling their offering prices during the previous bubble. Hundreds of companies sprang from nowhere. Most of them don’t even exist …
December 9, 2020 – DoorDash is due to come public today, followed by Airbnb tomorrow. Their receptions should most likely be favorable and will add to the speculative fever in the market. But a strong debut doesn’t guarantee success. Both are flirting with profitability, but flirting won’t be enough fairly soon. No predictions here, but these will be interesting stories to watch.
Stocks drifted higher yesterday, led by the tech group. Energy stocks were the laggards early, but recovered. All in all, it was a quiet day. The big news was the first vaccine injections against Covid-19 in the UK. Hopefully it will be a start on the road to the end of the pandemic. As I …
December 7, 2020 – Stocks moved higher again last week despite worsening Covid-19 statistics and a disappointing November employment report. While December rarely sees significant corrections, particularly in an up year, signs of increasing optimism and even euphoria suggest some degree of caution over the next couple of months.
Stocks continued their upward move into record territory on Friday despite lower than expected employment growth and a continued escalation in the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. It continues to be hard to fathom how stocks move higher despite the worse than expected news. We are at a point in the reporting cycle …
December 4, 2020 – Positive future economic news continues to get priced in the equity markets. However, interest rates are still half of what they were a year ago. What are investors to do with their fixed income needs?
Another day, another set of record highs for the major averages. Yesterday’s action was led by cyclical sectors again as Energy, Industrials and Consumer stocks posted solid gains. However, markets closed near the lows of the day on reports that Pfizer is having production issues with their vaccine. No one should expect a straight line …
December 2, 2020 – After a record-setting November, one shouldn’t expect a repeat in December. While favorable vaccine news has continued to lift stocks, markets can’t keep discounting the same things forever. A flatter, longer Christmas season will lead to confusing data. Target date funds will need to rebalance. There could be a few more bumps along the path ahead than most realize.
Stocks rose yesterday but gave back a good part of the morning rally by the close. Most of the economic story centered on the aftermath of Black Friday weekend and Cyber Monday. The conclusions were obvious. Americans are shopping more and more online, partly due to Covid-19 and partly out of convenience. Over time, one …
November 30, 2020 – It is hard to visualize Dow 30,000 against images of hundreds of cars lined up at food banks. President-elect Biden is filling out an economic team that will focus on those most in need. Wall Street, however, will stay focused on interest rates (they will stay low) and profits (they keep improving). The ideal would be more support for those in need without sacrificing gains made by Corporate America since the pandemic began.
Stocks head into today’s session sporting the best November performance to date of any November since 1987. If you remember back that far, November 1987 was a rebound month from a 40% August-October drop, hardly the same situation that we face today with stocks spiking to new record highs last week and the Dow Jones …
November 25, 2020 – Stocks crossed Dow 30,000 for the first time yesterday, as the day when the suns shines brightly and the pandemic ends comes more clearly into sight. This is the best November in decades for investors. A bad December in a strong year is rare. Leadership since Election Day has rotated to the risk-on stocks, but one has to question whether the surge in those names can go on for much longer.
Stocks continue to soar on vaccine news, and hints that the latest viral surge in Europe may have passed its peak. This as Americans prepare for Thanksgiving weekend, one that will be subdued compared to past holiday periods, but still presenting an uptick in social gatherings that may help to keep case counts high in …
November 23, 2020 – Covid-19 case counts may be close to a peak, and the election controversy may be fading. That will put earnings and interest rates back front and center. The real battle for 2021 is the forward path of long-term interest rates.
It has been one of the best Novembers in 40 years, but last week stocks consolidated a bit. The market’s focus remains split between Covid-19 impact, the Presidential transition, and, of course, earnings and interest rates. Let’s start with Covid-19. In the U.S. case counts continue to rise, as do both hospitalizations and deaths. As …
November 20, 2020 – Spiking case counts has not stopped the rotation into stocks that benefit from the reopening of the economy. Investors have been booking massive FANGMAN profits and buying economically sensitive companies. A new acronym fits the theme as we all try to lose the extra weight we put on while sheltering in place. Time to prepare for the BEACHBODY
Markets were relatively calm yesterday even as Covid case counts continue to ramp up. Rumors of stimulus talks opening back up, yet again, helped boost most sectors to a positive close. This followed a 500 point intraday drop on Wednesday, precipitated by the closure of schools in New York City. Futures are basically flat. Most …
November 18, 2020 – Summary: Rising virus counts suggest tough economic headwinds for a few months, but good vaccine news promises an end to the pain before too long. Longer term, the key to future market strength lies within the Fed. Is there a point when it slows its pace of bond purchases? Of course there is. When? That is the key question for investors in 2021.
Although the leading averages fell yesterday, more stocks advanced than fell in price. Two Dow standouts to the downside were Home Depot# and Walgreens. Home Depot reported very strong earnings but suggested that the pace of growth going forward might ebb. Heck, with comparable store sales growth of almost 25%, what else could you say? …
November 16, 2020 -The stock market continues to fly while Covid-19 cases spike. Investors were fooled once in February-March. They don’t seem to want to be fooled again by a viral spike that will only be temporary, especially with vaccines on the horizon. But that complacency may be a warning. If the surge gets much worse, our behavioral complacency is likely to change quickly. Should that happen, it would stand to reason that financial markets could be impacted as well.
Stocks continued their recovery on Friday as election uncertainties faded and economic data continued to support the pattern of a recovering economy. Over the last couple of weeks, leadership has rotated back and forth between growth and cyclical stocks. But in the end, almost all moved higher. Energy, the weakest sector all year, was actually …
November 13, 2020 – 2 steps forward, 1 step back. Vaccine news early in the week boosted markets, specifically recovery plays that benefit from a reopening of the economy. Rising Covid counts, global lockdown measures and localized overflowing hospital capacity is reversing some of that optimism. The next few months could be choppy.
As great as Pfizer’s# vaccine news was for a future post-Covid world, there are some hidden hiccups. Vials must be stored at minus 90 degrees Fahrenheit, much colder than most medicines. Once delivered there are numerous time constraints in order to get patients the first of two shots. Existing infrastructure does not support this. A …
November 11, 2020 – Hopes that an end to the pandemic is in sight has led to a surge in the value of stocks most impacted negatively by Covid-19. Higher interest rates have become a headwind to the big growth stocks. How much further both these trends have to go is the question facing investors today.
While the news backdrop this week has been the beginning of a Biden administration and good news on the Covid-19 vaccine front, the big stories in financial markets have been a jump in long-term interest rates and a marked rotation from the high-growth tech stocks to the companies that will benefit the most from the …
November 9 , 2020 – Election certainty and news that Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective have investors euphoric this morning. The vaccine news suggests that an end to the pandemic is in sight although it is still premature to throw away our masks. The key to the stock market next year however may not be earnings, which are certain to recover, but the path of interest rates.
Stocks had big gains last week as it became increasingly likely that Joe Biden would be the next President of the United States. While the results won’t be complete until certified by the states, and President Trump is planning to file legal challenges, almost everyone now accepts the results. This morning, as a first step, …
November 6, 2020 – A divided Government and low rates was enough good news for investors to put cash back to work in equities. Major averages are back to testing the upper boundaries of their trading ranges. A breakout would bring even more cash into the market. We take a look at the proposed winners and losers from the election results.
What a difference a week makes, at least from a market perspective. A few days ago everyone was worried about rising Covid cases, lack of stimulus and the prospect for an ugly, drawn out US election. Covid cases are still setting new highs across the globe. Optimistically, hospital capacity is not at the peak fear …
November 4, 2020 – While the election may still be in doubt, the stock market seems to be taking the results in stride. Perhaps the likelihood that the Senate will not flip to the Democrats gives comfort that major legislation is unlikely for the next 4 years. That leaves the economic reins in the hands of the Fed. Investors should like that.
Stocks had their best day yesterday since June on top of strong gains on Monday. Whether that was anticipating the election outcome, a reaction to Covid-19 news, or a relief rally the first two days after the end of the mutual fund tax year is anyone’s guess. But I don’t think anyone expected a race …
November 2, 2020 – Market weakness over the past two weeks largely relates to Covid-19 and election related uncertainty. But Friday’s losses emphasize that valuations are stretched among leaders of this bull market. With interest rates starting to inch up at the long end of the curve, leadership may have to rotate a bit or widen if this bull market is going to continue.
Stocks fell once again on Friday although a late afternoon rally reduced the losses. Despite a weak stock market last week, and a weak end to October, interest rates on both 10-year and 30-year Treasuries rose. Energy prices continued to weaken and the oil sector was one of the worst performers. Also losing ground, both …
October 30, 2020 – Four stocks, representing nearly 20% of the S&P, reported last night and are driving markets lower this morning. Earnings were solid, but uncertainty in end markets due to Covid and stimulus creates a vacuum where predicting future growth is difficult. Range-bound action is the best we can hope for in the near-term.
The final week of October is really spooking investors. Investors are booing solid earnings reports. One might say more tricks than treats. Weak Halloween puns aside, yesterday brought a solid rebound as the major averages attempted to solidify the low end of their recent trading ranges. An approximately 12% band between 3,200 and 3,600 on …
October 28, 2020 – After Monday’s sharp decline, stocks tried to stabilize yesterday morning, but they slumped again into the close. Disappointing earnings from a few major industrial firms didn’t help. Weak response to earnings from 3M# and Caterpillar, both Dow components, sent that average tumbling. This morning the decline continues as Germany wrestles with the need to close bars, restaurants and gyms in reaction to spiking Covid-19 case counts.
It is less than a week until Election Day. But Covid-19 fears are what is dominating the market. Case counts are spiking in Europe with France the current epicenter. Rising case counts are quickly followed by an increase in the number of people hospitalized. In the U.S. case counts are rising as well to the …
October 26, 2020 – Rising virus counts and surging numbers in Europe have investors in a cautious mood. They should be careful, as any serious surge will cause a decline in the pace of economic recovery. But a surge won’t last forever. Hopefully, the economic damage will be a slowdown in the pace of recovery and not a reversal.
Stocks traded within a narrow range on Friday. The Dow was the biggest loser among the major indices, courtesy of a sour economic forecast by component Intel. Otherwise it was a quiet Friday. Over the weekend, however, the Covid-19 news worldwide was discouraging. Cases are surging in Europe and rising throughout the U.S. If you …
October 23, 2020 – A debate worthy of the name. Stimulus positioning improvement. Rising small cap stocks. Rising long-term interest rates. Broad stock market rally. We’re almost getting back to a normal market, almost.
Briefly on the final debate. Lessons were learned. Mics being muted allowed for a much more “Presidential” showing. There were some jabs thrown at each other, but the tone improved vastly. With millions of votes already cast and many minds made up, the only question left is do enough independent voters exist to move the …
October 21, 2020 – Stimulus talks continue past Speaker Pelosi’s deadline. They are likely to reach agreement but not gain Congressional approval until after the election. After tomorrow’s debate, most voters will have made up their minds. Today, we outline how we see five different outcomes affecting the markets going forward.
As talks of additional stimulus failed to reach resolution, stocks fell yesterday. Adding to losses in the Dow was the poor reaction to IBM’s# results. While they met expectations on both the top and bottom lines, management did a poor job laying out future directions. Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Mnuchin continue to talk. There is …
May 11, 2020 – As more states are getting set to reopen, investors are watching a new phase of the economic response to Covid-19. We won’t know for several weeks or even months whether we are reopening too fast or not fast enough. But we certainly will have more facts by mid-summer. Public health officials still warn of a possible spike in the fall. If that happens, markets will react. If not, April was probably the low point.
Stocks continued to move higher last week despite the worst employment report since the Great Depression. And the damage is likely to get worse. The May report will show data based on numbers to be reported this week. The unemployment rate could soar to 20% or higher in May. But stocks look ahead, and the …
May 8, 2020 – – Leaders and laggards continued to diverge this week. There is reason for optimism on some companies who have not participated in the recent rally. The new post-Covid world will look different and the stock price movement may not reflect that fully. We still have an election to ponder as well.
We start the day with an unemployment report that spiked to 14.7% with 20.5mm jobs lost in April. Futures shrugged these numbers off as we look to open solidly higher. Clearly, optimism for successful reopenings around the world and an improving chance of beating this disease is winning the day. Thursday’s market performance aside, the …
May 6, 2020 – The message of the market is that we are past the abyss. April probably saw a drop of over 20 million jobs and more will be lost in May. But the world is reopening and the stock market is showing some optimism. Recovery will be very slow, but unless there is a resurgence of the virus that forces repeat closures, the direction is forward.
Stocks rallied once again yesterday but finished well off their morning highs. The economic news continues to be poor but survey data, which is real-time, suggests that the low point was in early April, the time of maximum quarantine. As the country slowly reopens, and the emphasis is the word slowly, investors will be watching …
May 4, 2020 – Threats of new tariffs are weighing on stocks. Some profit taking was in order anyway. States are starting to reopen. Markets want to know how fast the economy might recover. They will learn a lot over the next 30-45 days.
Stocks fell sharply on Friday, partly on profit taking and partly related to yet another threat of tariffs against China by President Trump. The most recent tariff agreement puts some burden on China to accelerate the purchase of American goods, particularly agricultural products. Obviously, the current pandemic throws a monkey wrench on that commitment. Chinese …
May 1, 2020 – Stocks posted one of the better months in a while. A lot of good news has been priced in. Much work needs to be done from here. The bull story has legs but timing may be more uncertain.
Last month brought one of the strongest equity market returns in a long time, posting the best advance since 1987. Coming after we saw negative interest rates, negative oil prices and a near complete shutdown in the economy is saying something! In total, the S&P advanced 12.7% and the technology heavy NASDAQ gained 15.4%. May …
March 20, 2020 – The market action is slowly showing some signs of normalcy. A handful of stocks and sectors may have hit their bottoms. Massive global money printing is providing a floor. We are hopeful there will be some cure in the coming months as new data looks promising. We are not out of the woods yet though.
The record books are being rewritten during this malaise. We’ve experienced eight straight days of at least 4% moves in the S&P that finally ended yesterday. The previous record was only six, dating all the way back to 1929. The very short end of US T-Bills turned negative out to six months at -0.02%. The …