“The Wealth of Nations” – The Musical This year marks the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, but also the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s publication, “The Wealth of Nations” (the short title). The core tenet of the tome is that a prosperous economy is regulated by an “invisible hand,” basically individuals acting in their own …
March 25, 2026 – The global economy is currently caught in an unprecedented tug-of-war between the inflationary pressures of fiscal dominance and the powerful, deflationary gravity of artificial intelligence. Understanding which of these monumental forces will ultimately dictate the coming decade is the central macroeconomic question facing markets today.
The Great Tug-of-War – Fiscal Dominance vs. AI Deflation As we navigate the complexities of early 2026, the global economy finds itself caught in an unprecedented tug-of-war between two monumental, opposing forces. On one side, we face the mounting risk of structural inflation driven by “fiscal dominance”—a scenario where soaring sovereign debt and unrestrained government …
March 18, 2026 – College basketball March Madness begins this week, and betting markets are off and running. Investors are in the midst of their own market fixation as winners from last year are struggling to put points on the board this year. Major stock market averages rebounded cautiously this week as investors gauge the potential impact on growth and inflation from the Midde East conflict. Stock market futures are indicated lower this morning as we await a Federal Reserve decision and forward-looking commentary.
March Madness College basketball March Madness begins this week. Picking the winners in each division can sometimes be little better than chance due to unexpected outcomes. Uncertainty has increased on the investing front as well as last year’s stock market winners, the Magnificent Seven stocks, are all lower this year and underperforming the S&P 500 …
March 11, 2026 – While escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fueling short-term volatility, it is critical to rely on a strategically balanced and diversified portfolio to weather these immediate storms. Furthermore, as the AI revolution triggers a generational repricing of technology, this disciplined allocation ensures your wealth is protected from vulnerable “asset-light” software companies and positioned to capture growth in tangible, “asset-heavy” physical industries.
Navigating Recent Market Volatility If you have checked your portfolio recently and felt a knot in your stomach, you are certainly not alone. The market has been on a violent, whiplash-inducing ride over the past few weeks, driven largely by the geopolitical powder keg in the Middle East. Oil prices have been swinging wildly, sending …
March 4, 2026 – Major stock market averages stumbled this week as the Middle East conflict rattled investors. However, markets recovered from yesterday’s morning lows, and the S&P 500 is down less than 1% year to date. This comes after the S&P 500 has been trading near all-time highs recently and after three strong years of market returns. Four of eleven S&P 500 sectors are down this year, although 7 sectors are in positive territory and five sectors are up 10% or more. The effects of this Black Swan event remain to be seen, depending upon the extent and duration of the conflict and its impact on energy supplies, economic growth and inflation. Stock market futures are indicated positive this morning.
Black Swans A-Swimming “The Black Swan” is a book by Nassim Taleb about the massive impact of rare, unpredictable events. At one point, all known swans were thought to be white until the discovery of black swans in Australia dispelled this belief. Black Swan events are characterized as being highly improbable, having a substantial impact, …
February 25, 2026 – While artificial intelligence is driving real business capabilities, the massive infrastructure costs and uncertain long-term profitability have triggered wild fluctuations in stocks tied to AI themes. Rather than reacting to these daily market swings, ignore the volatility and keep your focus on identifying the true long-term winners as they begin to demonstrate tangible financial success.
AI is a Disruptive Force for Businesses Much like the recent closing ceremonies of the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics, the initial, spectacular hype cycle of artificial intelligence is finally wrapping up. The fireworks have faded, and now global businesses have to go home, unpack, and figure out how to actually grind out results without the …
February 18, 2026 – As the Winter Olympics wind down over the next week, several medals have been won by merely staying on course. Sometimes just finishing the race, even backwards, can advance an Olympic contender to the next level of competition. Staying on course, keeping an eye on risk, and making adjustments along the way are just as important in an investment strategy.
Shredding the Half-Pipe As the Winter Olympics continue in Milan and Cortina, Italy, one thing is noteworthy. While a number of events involve going downhill at great speed, several medals have been won by merely staying on course. Sometimes just finishing the race, even backwards, can advance an Olympic contender to the next level of …
February 11, 2026 – Much like Sunday’s snoozefest of a Super Bowl, the market is trapped in a defensive struggle characterized by flat retail sales and deepening fears of AI disruption in software. As the Fed signals a continued pause on rate cuts, it is time to take a page from the consumer’s playbook and use this volatility to scoop up high-quality companies at discount prices.
Flatter Than the Patriot’s Offense If you struggled to stay awake during Sunday’s Super Bowl, you weren’t alone. The game was a defensive stalemate that lacked any real spark—a sentiment that, unfortunately, seems to be spreading to the U.S. economy. Much like the teams on the field who seemed content to punt rather than push …
February 4, 2026 – Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Groundhog Day this week, forecasting 6 more weeks of winter. Phil’s accuracy is only about 30% over the past decade and about 39% dating back to 1887, but it rivals more sophisticated models. This week the technology sector caught a chill, although other sectors of the stock market are starting to thaw out.
Déjà Vu All Over Again In the movie Groundhog Day, actor Bill Murray is forced to repeat the same wintry day in Gobblers Knob, PA waiting for a groundhog to forecast the future. January would not be a bad month to repeat as major stock indexes moved into positive territory. Yesterday, not so much. Software …
January 28, 2026 – Supported by the upcoming “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) fiscal stimulus and broadening earnings growth, the first half of 2026 offers a favorable market backdrop even as Big Tech faces intense scrutiny regarding tangible AI returns. However, we anticipate conditions will become more challenging later in the year, as the accumulation of lofty consensus earnings expectations and potential macroeconomic friction creates a riskier environment for investors.
Clear Skies for Now, But Clouds on the Horizon As the East Coast begins to clean up from the recent winter storm, investors are assessing the visibility for the year ahead. The market outlook for the first half of 2026 appears relatively clear, bolstered by stabilizing earnings and anticipated fiscal support. However, while the immediate …
January 21, 2026 – The “Sea of Tranquility” on Earth’s Moon was the site of the historic Apollo 11 landing in July of 1969, marking humanity’s first steps on another celestial body. The area was named for its seemingly calm, dark plains and potentially smooth landing potential. We started out the new year in a relatively tranquil phase for markets, but that has faded for now as new tariff threats have emerged. Hopefully, this is resolvable and short-lived, but bond yields around the world are backing up leading to a pullback in equity markets.
Houston, We Have A Problem We are coming off of three years in a row of strong stock market returns and a solid start for equity markets worldwide in early January. As of last week, the average volatility across US bonds, equities and the dollar over the past month had sunk to the lowest since …
January 14, 2026 – Following a strong, three-year bull market, we view the start of 2026 as a pivotal shift where sticky inflation, mixed earnings, and rising geopolitical tensions are replacing the era of easy, momentum-driven gains. While the near-term economy remains resilient, the market will need to see confirmation in upcoming earnings releases to continue its march higher.
A Shift in the Landscape As we begin 2026, following what has been a remarkably strong three-year bull market, I wanted to share my perspective on the changing environment. The easy gains of the recent past have set a high bar, and while the rearview mirror looks fantastic, the road ahead is becoming far more …
January 7, 2026 – 2025 ended up as the third year in a row of strong stock market returns. The new year has also seen a solid start for equity markets worldwide after markets drifted lower toward the tail end of 2025. 2026 will be a convergence year. It marks the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, the 100th anniversary of the founding of Route 66, and a Chinese New Year cycle that has not been seen in 60 years. If inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings converge on a favorable path, we could see solid market returns for the full year, although there are also several potential potholes to navigate.
A Solid Start to 2026 The S&P 500 finished 2025 with a 17.9% total return for the year, while the equal-weighted index posted an 11.4% total return. That is better than the average stock market return of 10% over the last 100 years, which amounts to about 7% adjusted for inflation. Alphabet# (Google’s parent), led …
November 17, 2025 – Last week saw massive rotation out of technology leaders into value stocks long forgotten in this year’s rally. Tech investors were spooked by a growing chorus of concerns around circular investing and stretched balance sheets. Some of the fears are real and some probably exaggerated. Given the strong performance over the last two years, some consolidation was clearly called for. Is the correction over? There certainly hasn’t been any panic or capitulation yet. If one looks closely, the big companies doing the best, experienced only modest declines in their stock prices. Those whose promises might have been exaggerated started to pay the price. That purge probably has more room to go.
It was an eventual week. The government shutdown was brought to a close. On Wall Street it was a week of rotation with money rotating heavily out of many tech names into areas of the market that couldn’t catch a bid for months or even years. Health care stocks, for instance, had their best week …
October 27, 2025 – With President Trump making news overseas, and Canada facing more tariffs, Wall Street will focus on the earnings of five big major tech companies this week. In the short-term, meaning between now and year-end, the prospect of continued solid earnings and lower short-term interest rates should keep stocks moving higher. But there are always warning signs. The biggie is debt. Too much debt burst the balloon in 1929 and again in 2008, the two biggest calamities of the last century. Debt levels aren’t quite threatening yet but they are moving in the wrong direction and bear watching.
For the past two weeks I have been traveling in Europe. The continent is an economic mess. Yes, tourism is strong and, on the surface, all seems vibrant. But in most cases, governments are in tenuous states attacked from both the left and right. Regulations and an inability across the Eurozone to reach consensus on …
August 25, 2025 – The Fed’s shift in policy, as stated by Jerome Powell last Friday, moves away from a focus on inflation and more toward insuring full employment. Such a shift suggests more short-term rate cuts and a willingness to tolerate some inflation as long as it stays below 3%. A willingness to tolerate a bit more inflation may sound innocuous but it could lead to unanchored long-term inflation expectations and keep 10-year Treasury yields elevated. If so, the euphoria expressed in Friday’s market rally may have been a bit too exuberant.
For the first four trading sessions last week, there was a decided shift away from momentum stocks and away from the perceived AI beneficiaries. That all flipped on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Friday at Jackson Hole and indicated a shift in policy within the Fed. Markets soared, interest rates declined …
August 21, 2025 – This Friday we will receive commentary from the Federal Reserve after its annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The central-bank gathering has sometimes been a venue for marking shifts in Fed policy. Last year Fed Chairman Powell used it to signal that rate cuts were coming, and followed through the next month. The Snake River, which runs through Jackson Hole, provides an apt backdrop for the Fed’s meeting where the waters can be turbulent and winding. In the meantime, technology stocks have retreated this week and a number of consumer-focused companies have provided both encouraging and uncertain signals.
A River Runs Through It Last year at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that the Fed would begin cutting interest rates at its next meeting, which occurred in September 2024. Powell stated that “The time has come for policy to adjust,” and that the “direction of travel is clear”. He …
August 18, 2025 – The noise of front-page news doesn’t seem to coincide with record stock prices. War, ICE raids, violent storms and tariffs may be the topics of the Sunday talk shows, but the stock market cares more about earnings and interest rates. Earnings are rising and interest rates are stable. Will that continue? Earnings growth should slow a bit as the full impact of tariffs hits. While the Fed Funds rates should start to decline this fall, markets will focus on changes in the 10-year Treasury yield more than the Fed Funds rate.
Reading the headlines, it is hard to square the circle between all the bad news we read about on the front pages and record stock prices. Tariffs, wars, rising commodity prices, ICE raids, and difficulties many have finding jobs doesn’t seem to jive with record reported profits. But investors aren’t crazy. So, let’s dig a …
July 17, 2025 – Stocks rebounded after President Trump clarified his stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While consumer and producer price indexes suggest some inflation moderation, particularly in services, certain tariff-exposed goods continue to see price increases. Despite these pressures, the U.S. economy shows underlying strength, exemplified by strong bank earnings and robust consumer spending, though the long-term impact of escalating tariffs remains a key uncertainty.
Market Volatility The U.S. stock market experienced volatility on Wednesday, initially dropping before recovering, largely influenced by remarks from President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Reports surfaced that Trump might attempt to remove Powell, causing the major indexes to tumble. However, stocks rebounded after Trump denied these plans, with the S&P 500 …
May 30, 2025 – Amidst a volatile market, significant economic risks such as high interest rates and trade policy are creating a tense environment where stock market gains may be capped. Key sectors, like housing, are already showing signs of strain from elevated rates, while the bond market remains turbulent. Therefore, a diversified and defensive investment strategy is recommended, emphasizing fundamental analysis and valuation discipline for stocks while holding high-quality bonds to navigate the expected volatility.
2025’s Crosscurrents: Markets in tension The current investment landscape presents a series of complex and often conflicting signals. While the S&P 500 has impressively recovered to within 4% of its February highs, a palpable sense of tension remains present. This environment is characterized by a tug-of-war between persistent economic risks and resilient asset prices, creating …
March 27, 2025 – A couple of weeks ago, NCAA college basketball March Madness was just getting underway. After several surprise upsets and some chaos among millions of brackets, we now know which teams are in the Sweet Sixteen final games. Over the past 40 years, only three men’s teams have had a long streak of winning years making it into the finals. As in the stock market, last year’s darlings may not be this year’s victors, but good companies can reinvent themselves and market volatility can work both ways.
More March Madness Tariff policy has been dominating headlines and impacting market volatility this year. The Magnificent 7 technology stocks had rebounded the last few days, but fell 3% yesterday on a day in which the Nasdaq declined 2%. This volatility has been mostly due to the potential inflationary effects of new tariffs and concerns …
December 19, 2024 – The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point yesterday, but signaled that only two more rate cuts may be coming in 2025 instead of the four cuts widely expected. Fed Chairman Powell said it is like “driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture: you slow down, you go less quickly.” That hawkish and more uncertain tone was not well received by markets. While the stock market is typically volatile on Fed decision days, the 10-year yield backed up to 4.5% and stocks dropped about 3% following the Fed’s remarks. Markets have been strongly positive this year, but a pause on this news provides a chance to focus on better valuations. Stock market futures are indicated positively this morning.
Fed Meeting – Driving on a Foggy Night The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point yesterday, the third consecutive reduction. This brings the total reduction to 1% since the Fed began cutting rates in September. The rate cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% is back to the level …
August 12, 2024 – Last week’s volatility exposes the heightened level of uncertainty in today’s financial markets. This week, the largest retailers report earnings and may offer some clarity into consumer spending trends. But uncertainty is likely to remain elevated until we get closer to the November elections.
Roughly 75% of the time, stocks go up. They go up because earnings rise. They don’t go up in a straight line for obvious reasons. Interest rates fluctuate. Central bank actions are impactful. With that said there are periodic bear markets. While occasionally they represent a correction of a severely overvalued market, most bear markets …
December 8, 2023 – Markets rallied yesterday but remained in tepid anticipation of today’s employment report and next week’s CPI report. The November employment report came in close to expectations with gains of 199,000. Not sure from the early read how much those numbers were enhanced by the end of the auto and Hollywood strikes. Markets reacted negatively to the report as month-over-month wages increased slightly more than anticipated. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% as the labor participation rate rose to a pre-pandemic high.
Stocks rallied yesterday while bonds stayed mostly level in front of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. For a change, the leaders were the big tech stocks, noticeable laggards over the last four weeks during a period where investors moved toward equities perceived as being cheaper than the high multiple Magnificent Seven. The pop in the …
September 18, 2023 – Markets are directionless, torn between better economic activity and an increase in storm clouds from labor unrest to China. What is crucial is the future trend for interest rates. Investors will parse this week’s FOMC meeting for clues, but probably won’t get a much clearer picture for their efforts.
Stocks have been trading sideways in a directionless pattern for the past month. On the plus side, earnings have exceeded forecasts and the economy continues to grow at a rate faster than economists had predicted. But that has been countered by a series of concerns: 1. Interest rates, particularly at the long end of the …
June 12, 2023- : The S&P 500 traded into Bull market territory last week on the back of a broad market rally. The broadening of the rally is key to continued optimism in the market. However, the possibility of a recession still looms, despite the rally.
Are we in a new Bull market? Last week the S&P 500 rallied to its highest level this year which put the index 20% above its October lows. On a year-to-date basis the index is up 12% led by mega-cap technology stocks. However, as we mentioned many times before, not all stocks and sectors have …
May 12, 2023 – While mega caps keep gaining steam, the average stock is now down for the year. Eight of the last nine trading sessions have been negative for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Fed may be done raising rates, but an all-clear signal is far off in the distance. Transitions are hard!
April’s consumer inflation report was well received, with a continuation of a gradual slowing for inflation. Ditto for the Producer Price Index yesterday morning. Our infamous “Fed whisperer”, Nick Timiraos, helped fuel a minor rally in growth stocks when his latest Wall Street Journal missive noted “Federal Reserve officials were already leaning toward taking a …
April 26, 2023 – Markets are being buffeted by crosscurrents. The banking crisis has come back into focus amid turmoil at First Republic. Earnings reports move individual stocks both ways. Bond market strength portends a weakening economy and slower inflation. Yet pockets of economic strength endure, mostly in the travel and leisure sectors. The net for equity investors is a standoff, one likely to endure for some time amid persistent rotation of leadership.
It was a wild day yesterday with several strong moves relative to earnings, a wild ride for First Republic Bank, the regional bank most people see as the stress point within the banking system, and a sharp rally in bonds. The major averages were all lower. After the close, solid earnings from Microsoft# reduced some …
October 26, 2022- Stocks have now risen sharply for three straight sessions as both the value of the dollar and the yield on 10-year Treasuries retreated. But disappointing earnings last night from a trio of tech names may spoil the party this morning. Or at least give it some reason to pause. The poor numbers from tech land remind us to look forward, not back. The great opportunities that technology created over the last quarter century are now maturing. The good news is that new opportunities will appear. They always do in a capitalistic entrepreneurial society.
Stocks rose sharply for the third straight session. It’s earnings season. Through yesterday, the results were basically in line with lowered expectations, but perhaps the biggest driver of higher stock prices was the reversals over the past several days in the value of the dollar and the yield on 10-year Treasuries. Within a bear market …
October 12, 2022- As we enter earnings season, attention will shift from interest rate fears to corporate performance. Pepsi kicked it off this morning with good results, hopefully an encouraging sign. As always, the story for the season will revolve around expectations versus reality. In July, reality beat expectations sparking the best rally of the year. The key will be the relative performance of the large tech names, notable laggards coming into earning season.
Stocks ended mixed yesterday in a very volatile session where the Dow Industrial Average moved back and forth by more than 1000 points. News was rather sparse. A brief afternoon plunge occurred after the Bank of England signaled it would halt its planned intervention to support the pound Friday as originally planned. Stock, bond, and …
October 5, 2022 – Two huge up days in a row put bulls back in charge. Is this the market bottom? Only time will tell. It will largely depend on the severity of the pending economic downturn. But retreating interest rates, and weaking labor market statistics suggest the end to the Fed’s cycle of higher interest rates is nearing an end. That is at least one key ingredient to the end of a market downturn.
For those of you who have read my letters over the years, you should know about my 2-day rule. It states that two consecutive days of outsized moves in the opposite direction of recent market trends marks a reversal. Certainly, the gains Monday and yesterday qualify as strong up sessions in sharp contrast to the …
August 26, 2022 – Markets continued to consolidate the ~20% spike off June’s low with minor rebounds the past few days. In anticipation of Chairman Powell’s long-awaited speech at Jackson Hole today, stocks are priced for a somewhat hawkish update. Anything that deviates from that position could release energy in either direction. Other news items require some attention as well that could affect GDP going forward.
Stocks staged a late day rally to help bring all 11 S&P sectors to a positive close yesterday. Gains were led by Basic Materials, Technology, and Communication stocks. The risk-on tone had defensive sectors lag the overall market with Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care stocks fractionally higher. Rallies continue to follow the Treasury market. …
June 13, 2022 – Friday’s report on Consumer Prices told us all that the fight against inflation will be harder than previously anticipated. This week, the Fed will increase interest rates again. It may suggest the ultimate Fed Funds rate this cycle will need to be higher than previously thought. None of this is good news for equity investors.
Friday’s CPI report didn’t make investors happy. Led by sharply higher energy expenses, and the fastest growing shelter costs in decades, the message loud and clear was that inflation shows no signs yet of abating. Recognizing that government steps to curb inflation only began in March, the numbers we are seeing now weren’t impacted one …
May 25, 2022 – While the Dow tries to find its footing, the NASDAQ continues in steep decline as one former darling after another faces reality. It’s an ugly picture and it isn’t over for the speculative end of the market. for those looking for safer havens, more dependent on predictable cash flow growth, the picture is far better. The contrast between the two worlds was most evident yesterday.
Stocks fell once again although a sharp afternoon rally reduced the damage. Still, the NASDAQ fell another 2.4% after a prominent social media company lowered earnings guidance just a month after it previously offered a somber outlook. As a group, social media and related companies depend on advertising for revenue. With the economy slowing and …
May 2, 2022- When leadership gets taken out to the woodshed, the whole market dies. That is what happened last week. While some escaped (e.g., Microsoft) the loud and clear message is that the big boys of the S&P 500 are now at or near economic maturity. That isn’t a message a market already worried about interest rates and recession wanted to hear.
Stocks sank on Friday to close out one of the most miserable months for equities in many years. The NASDAQ took it on the chin the worst after Amazon# reported a weaker than expected outlook for its retail business when it reported results Thursday night. On Friday, Amazon# suffered its worst percentage loss since the …
March 25, 2022 – Investors continue to grapple with inflation, war news, Fed tightening and valuations. Historians will point to stocks not topping until earnings peak, inversion occurs and/or better alternatives. We got some answers over the past few weeks but cloudiness prevails, for now.
A few weeks ago, there were almost no positives to think of. Most investment advisors were bearish. Cash was sitting on the sidelines earning nothing. Short sellers were pressed. Russian invasion continued to look worse by the hour. Oil, wheat, natural gas and many other commodities spiked higher even after doubling since Covid. The most …
March 21, 2022- The Fed did what it said it would do, economic growth remains intact, and the war isn’t getting worse by leaps and bounds. That set the table for a strong rally in stocks. Is the bottom in? Or is this just a bounce? The answer may be a little yes and a little no. For some stocks, the bounce might be over, but if the economy stays solid, there remain plenty of opportunities.
Stocks rose sharply all week as the NASDAQ rebounded out of bear market territory and both the Dow and S&P 500 cut their 2022 losses roughly in half. Oil prices remained volatile closing at over $100 per barrel. Pain at the pump continues but it isn’t getting worse, at least for now. Interest rates rose …
March 7, 2022 – While the war outcome continues down a path leading to a Russian occupation of Ukraine, the economic costs are becoming both starker and more apparent. Gasoline prices are rising close to $0.50 per week. If anything, the pace is accelerating. Wheat, aluminum, copper and palladium are spiking as well. These root commodity price increases will flow into a massive array of products. Inflation is quickly becoming more supply constrained than demand driven. The Fed’s weaponry can’t increase supply.
Stocks fell last week for the fourth week in a row, a combination of inflation fears and the war in Ukraine. Bond yields fell amid a flight to safety. The news from Ukraine is discouraging, to say the least, but it isn’t unexpected. Russia has overwhelming military advantages and continues to make progress in its …
January 10, 2022 – If there was a message last week, it was that speculative fever is dissipating as the Fed winds down its pace of bond purchases. No one knows when the purging of speculation will end but it probably will be with a thud, not a whimper. Market rotation to financials, industrials and energy names suggests the economy continues to thrive despite Omicron. The rotation can go a bit farther. The high growth sector got very overpriced, outpacing cyclical and value stocks for years, and it could take several more months for the rotation to run its course, allowing for some intermittent bounces and reversals. The overall market is down only modestly as the speculative fringes blow apart.
It was a tough week for stocks particularly on the NASDAQ. The speculative end of the market took the biggest hit as bond yields rose in line with continued economic growth. I noted last week the relevance of the January barometer. While not always valid, there is a trend that says, “as goes January, so …
October 11, 2021 – Markets remain volatile as growth slows, interest rates rise, and Washington politics remain a mess. Until supply chain problems are resolved the picture is unlikely to change. Demand is strong but much of it is unfilled. Perhaps it is time for Washington to take notice.
Stocks gave up some ground on Friday but still finished the week with decent gains. Trading remained volatile. Leadership rotated between growth and value stocks several times depending on the economic news of the day and trends in interest rates. The week ended with 10-year Treasury yields crossing the 1.60% barrier for the first time …
October 4, 2021 – A tough September is not a harbinger of what’s to come. The Delta variant is fading, and interest rates are not likely to rise as fast as they did in September. Inflation concerns remain. However, that should mute future upside. Higher earnings, on the other hand, will mute the downside.
Stocks rallied at the end of a dismal September. While growth in September deteriorated a bit thanks to the persistence of the Delta variant of Covid-19, stocks fell due to a combination of issues, a slowdown in growth being just one. Interest rates rose, the Fed hinted at tapering bond purchases before year end, and …
October 1, 2021 – Concerns, they are aplenty. Markets ended September on a sour note, as major averages tested last week’s spike lows. The key to the next 5% move revolves around equities holding near current support levels. Near-term headwinds are compounding, pointing to more downside risk. Rest assured, this bull market is not over yet.
Another quarter is in the books as we enter October which historically has been a favorable seasonal time to be invested. This is especially true in years where stock market returns are already generous. History says we should expect a solid finish for 2021. Even after a nearly 5% drop across the board in September, …
June 18, 2021-Fed announcements usually take a few days before the market figures out what they really said. This time is no different as rates initially spiked but made a 180 degree turn yesterday. Winners and losers in the stock market also flip-flopped. What to do now?
Market participants, in both stocks and bonds, waited with bated breath for the conclusion to the 2-day Federal Reserve Meeting. After two straight months of worrisome inflationary data, lower than expected employment reports and a continued rise in consumer spending, many were frightened at the prospect of the Federal Reserve changing their stance and pulling …
May 21, 2021 – After a 3-week hiatus, buyers came rushing back to the markets. Technology stocks rebounded the most, coinciding with a slight reversal in interest rates. Taper talk is coming, and we examine what that means for markets from here.
After three straight days of losses in the overall market, bargain hunters stepped up to the plate yesterday with technology stocks leading the charge higher. The Nasdaq bounced back 1.8%, pointing towards hope of at least a short-term bottom after another mini-correction. The Dow closed up 0.5% and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index gained …
February 22, 2021 – The biggest factor this morning is the ongoing rise in 10-year bond yields. Higher yields mean lower P/Es for stocks. They impact growth stocks more than value names. As the economy recovers in a rising rate environment, watch for better relative performance from value sectors and a sharp headwind to excessive speculative activity.
Last week was highlighted by a continued move higher for long-term bond yields, a modest correction among high flying tech stocks, and ongoing volatility in the speculative fringes of the stock market. The short squeeze targets like GameStop continued to move back down in the direction of fair value, while SPACs continued to raise billions …