• Menu
  • Skip to right header navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to secondary navigation
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Before Header

Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management Firm

wealth management

  • Why TBA?
    • Why Tower Bridge Advisors?
    • FAQs
  • Who We Serve
    • Individuals & Families
    • Financial Advisors
    • Institutions & Consultants
  • People
    • James M. Meyer, CFA® – CEO
    • Robert T. Whalen – Principal
    • Nicholas R. Filippo – VP, Sales & Marketing
    • Jeffrey Kachel – CFO, Principal & CTO
    • Chad M. Imgrund – Sr. Research Analyst
    • Christopher E. Gildea – Senior Portfolio Manager, Co-Chief Investment Officer
    • Daniel P. Rodan – Sr. Portfolio Mgr.
    • Christopher M. Crooks, CFA®, CFP® – Senior Portfolio Manager, Co-Chief Investment Officer
    • Michael J. Adams – Sr. Portfolio Manager
    • Shawn M. Gallagher, CFA® – Sr. Portfolio Mgr.
  • Wealth Management
    • How to Select the Best Wealth Management Firms
  • Process
    • Financial Planning
    • Process – Equities
    • Process – Fixed Income
  • Client Service
  • News
    • Market Commentary
  • Video
    • Economic Updates
  • Contact
    • Become A TBA Advisor
    • Ask a Financial Question
  • We are looking to add advisors to our team. Click here to learn more!
  • We are looking to add advisors to our team. Click here to learn more!
  • Click to Call: 610.260.2200
  • Send A Message
  • Why TBA?
    • Why Tower Bridge Advisors?
    • FAQs
  • Services
    • Individuals & Families
    • Financial Advisors
    • Institutions & Consultants
  • People
    • James M. Meyer, CFA – Principal & CIO
    • Raymond F. Reed, CFA – Principal
    • Robert T. Whalen – Principal
    • Nicholas R. Filippo – VP, Sales & Marketing
    • Jeffrey Kachel – CFO, Principal & CTO
    • Chad M. Imgrund – Sr. Research Analyst
    • Christopher E. Gildea – Sr. Portfolio Mgr.
    • Daniel P. Rodan – Sr. Portfolio Mgr.
  • Wealth Management
  • Our Process
    • Financial Planning
    • Process: Equities
    • Process – Fixed Income
  • Client Service
  • News
    • News & Resources
    • Market Commentary
  • Videos
    • Economic Updates
  • Contact
    • Become a TBA Advisor
    • Ask a Financial Question
wealth management

September 18, 2023 – Markets are directionless, torn between better economic activity and an increase in storm clouds from labor unrest to China. What is crucial is the future trend for interest rates. Investors will parse this week’s FOMC meeting for clues, but probably won’t get a much clearer picture for their efforts.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

Stocks have been trading sideways in a directionless pattern for the past month. On the plus side, earnings have exceeded forecasts and the economy continues to grow at a rate faster than economists had predicted. But that has been countered by a series of concerns:

1. Interest rates, particularly at the long end of the curve, have been slowly climbing. The 10-year Treasury yield is back at highs not seen since last October and threatens to move higher.

2. China, a pillar of growth for the past several decades is slowing down as its population starts to shrink and Communist leadership grapples with near-term economic concerns stemming in part from too much debt and a slow recovery from Covid shutdowns.

3. Higher oil prices.

4. Sustained wage pressure. Although the number of new jobs per month has been trending lower, and job openings are in decline, wage rates are still rising well in excess of 4%. Worker unrest is demonstrated by increased strike activity. 2023 was already the biggest year for strikes in two decades before auto workers walked off their job last week.

5. Tech stocks have led the market for most of 2023 as optimism over the rapid growth of Generative Artificial Intelligence lifted expectations. But it appears that reality and expectations have reached a balance point. Recent earnings reports from companies like Oracle# and Nvidia#, while good, failed to lift expectations further. As a result, their share prices have stalled, at least for the moment. New leadership has yet to surface.

6. Demand for new homes had energized the overall housing market even as demand for existing homes waned. However, with mortgage rates crossing 7%, even homebuilders are starting to see resistance.

That sets the stage for this week’s FOMC meeting. The immediate outcome of the meeting isn’t in question. The Fed isn’t going to change the Fed Funds rate from a range of 5.25-5.50%. It might even be done raising rates altogether. Instead, investors will parse every written word in the post-meeting statement, every spoken word in Chairman Powell’s press conference, and every dot in the dot plot forecasts of meeting participants for a hint to the future course of rates.

Such efforts are a waste of time. Consensus today is that the first rate cut will come around mid-2024. Whenever it happens, it will be dependent on the pace at which inflation declines between now and then, and the growth rate of the economy. The Fed has two mandates, price stability and sustaining economic growth. In 2022-2023, price stability became more important as inflation spiked out of control. It is still too high, but it is trending down and will continue to do so as long as real rates are notably positive. Without any further rate increases, the real rate will rise as inflation continues to fall. The closer inflation gets to the Fed’s 2% target, the sooner it can switch focus to overall growth. Right now, growth is still reasonably robust. Q3 growth could reach 3%. The Atlanta Fed is forecasting closer to 5%. Thus, at the moment, the focus continues to be on inflation, not sustaining growth.

But that should change in the months ahead. Student loan repayments restart this fall. That will impact consumption. Higher oil prices won’t hurt GDP per se but they will shift buying towards energy needs and away from discretionary spending. Some of the sectors that have led the economy for months, notably travel and leisure have started to falter. Domestic airline ticket demand is falling at a rate faster than normal seasonality suggests. Attendance at Disney World and nearby Florida resorts is down year-over-year. Retail sales are spotty. The outlook for Christmas as expressed by retailers is subdued. Even the dollar stores are feeling pressure. When the economy slows, lower income families feel the pain first. But whether the economy simply evolves into a soft landing or slips into recession is still unknown.

One factor that could influence that outcome is a financial surprise. In 2008, the economy was slipping into recession from the start. But the events of mid-September, when Lehman, Fannie Mae and AIG fell, caused outright angst. Americans didn’t know where their money would be safe. Treasury had to increase the size of insured deposits by over 150%. A slow economic deceleration threatened to morph into total collapse.

We got a hint of worry last spring when several regional banks failed, but the damage was contained. Americans at the time also had a cushion of savings left over from the pandemic. Will there be another shoe to drop? That’s anyone’s guess. There are seeds planted. Money supply is falling, commercial real estate assets are stressed from oversupply, lower occupancy and higher financing rates. The use of excess leverage by investors, small and large, whether it be on Treasury/futures arbitrage or speculation in 1-2 day options are symptoms. So far, none of these seeds have germination. There is no current crisis. But when rates remain elevated, money conditions tighten, banks come under increased regulatory scrutiny, and speculation increases, the odds of a serious problem increase. Again, I am not forecasting anything. Rather, I am raising a yellow flag to be watchful.

So, what gets markets moving up or down from here? Markets almost always flutter around an FOMC meeting. But this one isn’t likely to change the market’s course beyond 24 hours. Over the next few weeks, any progress or lack thereof settling high profile labor conflicts or avoiding a government shutdown could help or hurt. The first week in October will give us a better picture of economic activity in September, the most important month economically in the third quarter. Perhaps the most important indicator to watch is the direction of the 10-year Treasury. This morning it is back to exactly the high yield of last October. If it moves noticeable higher, that would spell trouble for stocks. Conversely, if either good inflation news or a deteriorating economy pushes the yield back down toward 4%, that would help. In technical terms, is this a double-top or a breakout to a fresh high for yield?

September is often a seasonally weak time for stocks, in large part because of the relative absence of data, allowing investors to fester and worry a bit about the unknown. Over the next few weeks, we will learn more pieces to the puzzle which may better define the market’s direction in the weeks ahead, at least until Q3 earnings season begins in mid-October.

Today, Lance Armstrong is 52. Former Phillies star Ryne Sandberg is 64.

James M. Meyer, CFA 610-260-2220

 

 

Tower Bridge Advisors manages over $1.3 Billion for individuals, families and select institutions with $1 Million or more of investable assets. We build portfolios of individual securities customized for each client's specific goals and objectives. Contact Nick Filippo (610-260-2222, nfilippo@towerbridgeadvisors.com) to learn more or to set up a complimentary portfolio review.

# – This security is owned by the author of this report or accounts under his management at Tower Bridge Advisors.

Additional information on companies in this report is available on request. This report is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing company, industry or security mentioned herein. This firm or its officers, stockholders, employees and clients, in the normal course of business, may have or acquire a position including options, if any, in the securities mentioned. This communication shall not be deemed to constitute an offer, or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. The information above has been obtained from sources believed reliable, but is not necessarily complete and is not guaranteed. This report is prepared for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Opinions are subject to change without notice.

Filed Under: Market Commentary

Previous Post: «Webinar, Towering Deficits, Ratings Downgrade August 2023 Economic Update – Towering Deficits and a Ratings Downgrade; Do They Matter?
Next Post: December 8, 2023 – Markets rallied yesterday but remained in tepid anticipation of today’s employment report and next week’s CPI report. The November employment report came in close to expectations with gains of 199,000. Not sure from the early read how much those numbers were enhanced by the end of the auto and Hollywood strikes. Markets reacted negatively to the report as month-over-month wages increased slightly more than anticipated. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% as the labor participation rate rose to a pre-pandemic high. »

Primary Sidebar

Market Commentary

Sign Me Up!

Latest News

  • June 16, 2025 – While many in Congress fret that the reconciliation bill now before the Senate raises deficits and ultimately leads to economic disaster if left unchecked in the future, the focus will be on now. That means lower taxes, faster growth and higher earnings in the short-run as long as the bond market doesn’t rebel. Only a true crisis is likely to elicit fiscal austerity. That won’t happen before the current bill, slightly modified, will pass. Wall Street will embrace it because it always embraces stimulative policy, at least until the side effects kick in. Markets are starting to replace complacency with euphoria. That can last many months. But as we learned from the SPAC debacle in 2021, it won’t last forever.
  • June 12, 2025 – Despite a resilient stock market grinding near all-time highs, a fresh wave of geopolitical risk and fiscal policy uncertainty is creating headwinds. A chorus of Wall Street’s most respected investors is sounding the alarm, warning of dangerously high valuations, an unsustainable U.S. debt burden, and the rising probability of an economic slowdown.
  • June 9, 2025 – This week the focus will be on trade negotiations with China and the progress getting the Big Beautiful Bill on the President’s desk. The former is likely to be complicated and slow moving, but any movement in the right direction should keep investors happy. As for the legislation, it will be inflationary and worrisome long-term if one focuses on future debt service requirements. But this market has heard wolf cried too often to care until either interest rates spike higher or the dollar comes under renewed attack.
  • June 5, 2025 – The Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park erupts regularly, but not on an exact schedule. Considering the most recent 100 eruptions, the average time between eruptions ranged from 55 minutes to over 2 hours. Likewise, inflation and employment data can cause ebbs and flows in the bond market, creating volatility for investors. Economic data are currently coming in mixed, mostly related to changing tariff policy. Meanwhile, equity markets are slightly positive so far this year, and only off about 3% from all-time highs.
  • June 2, 2025 – Just as the Soviets laid down the gauntlet in the 1960s starting the space race, China has caught up to us technologically in many ways and is still gaining ground in others. For the U.S. to maintain its leadership requires coordinated efforts from both the private and public sectors. Trying to erect barriers is not a winning formula. Rather, properly focusing resources to support the most strategic initiatives makes sense.
  • May 30, 2025 – Amidst a volatile market, significant economic risks such as high interest rates and trade policy are creating a tense environment where stock market gains may be capped. Key sectors, like housing, are already showing signs of strain from elevated rates, while the bond market remains turbulent. Therefore, a diversified and defensive investment strategy is recommended, emphasizing fundamental analysis and valuation discipline for stocks while holding high-quality bonds to navigate the expected volatility.
  • May 27, 2025 – The House has passed Trump’s big beautiful bill and moved it on to the Senate. It’s a budget buster that offers something for all but will expand deficits meaningfully. It’s a bit of a mess that can be fixed if the Senate has the backbone to fix it. Wall Street will be watching, especially bond investors.
  • May 22, 2025 – Memorial Day Weekend is typically the unofficial start of summer for many. However, this year has been anything but typical. Corporate earnings have been holding up based on recent company reports and outlooks. Tariffs have dented a few earnings reports, but the consumer continues to spend. Credit spreads are not indicating a recession yet, although interest rates have been on the rise as Congress works on a spending resolution bill. Markets gave back some of their recent gains yesterday but are still only about 5% from their all-time highs. Not quite bear market territory. Anyone traveling this weekend to a national park should remember to bring their bear spray.
  • May 19, 2025 – Stocks have clawed back all their post-Liberation Day losses as the perceived impact of tariffs have lessened. But now comes the hard part. Whatever tariffs are imposed will have economic consequences that we are only just starting to see. The big tax bill as originally proposed is a budget buster. 10-year Treasury yields are now back above 4.5%. With hindsight equity investors overreacted after Liberation Day. The subsequent rally may have gone too far as well.
  • May 15, 2025 – Following a big rebound, the S&P 500 is flat YTD but trades at a high valuation of 23x forward earnings. Consumer spending faces headwinds from rising student loan defaults and a cooling housing market. While recession fears have eased, the economy is slowing and inflation trends remain uncertain.

Footer

Wealth Management Services

  • Individuals & Families
  • Financial Advisors
  • Institutions & Consultants

Important Links

  • ADV Part 2 & CRS
  • Privacy Policy

Tower Bridge Advisors, a Philadelphia Wealth and Asset Management firm, is registered with the SEC as a Registered Investment Advisor.

Portfolio Review

Is your portfolio constructed to meet your current and future needs? Contact us today to set up a complimentary portfolio review, using our sophisticated portfolio analysis system.

Contact

Copyright © 2023 Tower Bridge Advisors

Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management, Registered Investment Advisors

300 Barr Harbor Drive
Suite 705
West Conshohocken, PA 19428

Phone: 610.260.2200
Toll Free: 866.959.2200

  • Why Tower Bridge Advisors?
  • Investment Services
  • Our Team
  • Wealth Management
  • Investment Process
  • Client Service
  • News
  • Market Commentary
  • Economic Update Videos
  • Contact