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March 27, 2025 – A couple of weeks ago, NCAA college basketball March Madness was just getting underway. After several surprise upsets and some chaos among millions of brackets, we now know which teams are in the Sweet Sixteen final games. Over the past 40 years, only three men’s teams have had a long streak of winning years making it into the finals. As in the stock market, last year’s darlings may not be this year’s victors, but good companies can reinvent themselves and market volatility can work both ways.

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

More March Madness

Tariff policy has been dominating headlines and impacting market volatility this year. The Magnificent 7 technology stocks had rebounded the last few days, but fell 3% yesterday on a day in which the Nasdaq declined 2%. This volatility has been mostly due to the potential inflationary effects of new tariffs and concerns regarding retaliatory tariffs. Whether tariffs are threatened or implemented, we are now starting to see corollary impacts on business decisions. Yesterday we found out that U.S. orders for durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, (toasters, cars, aircraft), increased by 0.9% in February from the prior month. Expectations were for durable goods orders to fall by about 1%. This comes after an upwardly revised 3.3% increase in January. The rise in durable goods orders would normally be considered very favorable, but was most likely a result of front-loading purchases ahead of tariffs taking effect.

In the durable goods report, electrical equipment, appliances, and components orders jumped 2.0%.
Orders for machinery climbed 0.2% while those for transportation equipment increased 1.5%. Transportation orders were lifted by a 4.0% rebound in demand for motor vehicles and parts and a 9.3% gain in defense aircraft and parts orders. This was offset by a 5.0% decline in commercial aircraft orders. More telling, however, is that non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which is a proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.3% after an upwardly revised 0.9% surge in January. Capital spending outside of data centers has yet to rebound steadily.

New 25% tariffs on auto imports were announced yesterday afternoon, becoming effective April 2nd. Tariffs will not apply to auto parts made in the U.S. Previously, the administration had imposed a 20% duty on all imports from China and 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico that are not compliant with a North American trade agreement. In addition, 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada, Mexico, the European Union and other countries have been fully restored. No wonder stock and bond markets have been moving in fits and starts.

Finally, the Finals

It took almost a decade, but someone finally won Warren Buffett’s $1 million NCAA Tournament bracket challenge. The winning employee took home the grand prize after picking 31 of the 32 first-round games correctly. Buffett’s bracket challenge is not available to everyone as only employees of Berkshire Hathaway# can enter. Perhaps the winner can purchase one share of Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares which go for about $800,000 per share.

Warren Buffett has been holding onto extra cash looking for better investment opportunities and valuations as the market corrects. Market corrections are a normal part of investing cycles, and the typical drawdown in any given year has averaged about 15% over the last twenty years on the way to a 10% average annual gain with dividends. The S&P 500 has already recovered from a 10% correction from its peak in mid-March, and is down about 2.9% year to date. While technology stocks dominated returns last year, so far in 2025, Technology stocks are down 8%, while the Energy sector is up 9%, Healthcare is up 6% and Financials are up about 4%.

The yield on the 10-year treasury has fallen from 4.8% early in the year to 4.2%, but has recently risen toward 4.4%. 30-year mortgage rates have remained relatively high at around 6.8%, cramping home buying activity somewhat. Looking ahead, interest-rate futures currently imply that the chances of the Fed resuming rate cuts at its May policy meeting are only 14%, so markets may not get much help from the Fed until later in the year. That will depend upon the path of inflation and unemployment.

This is a different kind of March Madness than we are used to. Markets do not like uncertainty, but have even more trouble with moving targets. April 2nd could mark an intermediate high-water mark for uncertainty as other levies are introduced that may not be as severe as previously telegraphed. Equity futures are somewhat directionless this morning awaiting a report on initial jobless claims and pending home sales. Volatility may work in both directions as the year progresses.

Talented entertainers born this day include Mariah Carey who turns 56, and Fergie who turns 50. It is not fiction that Quentin Tarantino also turns 62.

Christopher Crooks, CFA®, CFP® 610-260-2219

 

Tower Bridge Advisors manages over $1.3 Billion for individuals, families and select institutions with $1 Million or more of investable assets. We build portfolios of individual securities customized for each client's specific goals and objectives. Contact Nick Filippo (610-260-2222, nfilippo@towerbridgeadvisors.com) to learn more or to set up a complimentary portfolio review.

# – This security is owned by the author of this report or accounts under his management at Tower Bridge Advisors.

Additional information on companies in this report is available on request. This report is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing company, industry or security mentioned herein. This firm or its officers, stockholders, employees and clients, in the normal course of business, may have or acquire a position including options, if any, in the securities mentioned. This communication shall not be deemed to constitute an offer, or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. The information above has been obtained from sources believed reliable, but is not necessarily complete and is not guaranteed. This report is prepared for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Opinions are subject to change without notice.

Filed Under: Market Commentary

Previous Post: « December 19, 2024 – The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point yesterday, but signaled that only two more rate cuts may be coming in 2025 instead of the four cuts widely expected. Fed Chairman Powell said it is like “driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture: you slow down, you go less quickly.” That hawkish and more uncertain tone was not well received by markets. While the stock market is typically volatile on Fed decision days, the 10-year yield backed up to 4.5% and stocks dropped about 3% following the Fed’s remarks. Markets have been strongly positive this year, but a pause on this news provides a chance to focus on better valuations. Stock market futures are indicated positively this morning.
Next Post: April 7, 2025 – What a week! Judging from markets overseas, the rough ride will continue when markets open today. While some reaction or rationalization of tariffs announced last week is likely to be forthcoming, investors fear the worst right now and are seeking safety until clarity improves. While it may be tempting to bargain hunt, perhaps in hopes that Trump will moderate the level of tariffs as countries offer appeasement, stock markets don’t rise simply on hope and dreams. Valuations, despite last week’s carnage, still aren’t low historically although there are bargains and more will appear if the decline continues at last week’s pace for much longer. »

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  • July 3, 2025 – The second quarter of 2025 delivered a stellar performance for U.S. equities, with impressive gains across major indices driven by strong corporate earnings, AI enthusiasm, and eased trade tensions. Despite this rally, the market successfully navigated challenges including early tariff anxieties, signs of consumer stress, and geopolitical uncertainties. Looking ahead, investors are keenly watching the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and its potential impact on interest rates, inflation, and corporate profitability.
  • June 30, 2025 – Trump’s big beautiful bill is headed for the finish line. It isn’t done yet and likely will see further changes before it reaches his desk. As the administration buys the votes necessary for its approval, expect the impact on future deficits to rise. With that said, the bill will help to accelerate near-term growth. Second quarter earnings reports are just a couple of weeks away and they should be good. However, unlike Q1 when skepticism abounded, this time optimism is high. July is usually a good month for stocks but the sharp April-June rally may mute the pace of further gains.
  • June 26, 2025 – Labubu dolls are hard to get these days. These dolls are prized by children in China, along with some celebrity admirers such as David Beckham and Rihanna. The grimacing, elvish-looking creatures come in “blind boxes” that keep buyers in suspense over which one they might get, but can take weeks to acquire. They sell for as little as $20, but a rare variety recently sold at auction for $150,000. In spite of all the hand-wringing about inflation and tariffs, consumers around the globe continue to spend. However, patterns of spending have definitely shifted.
  • June 23, 2025 – Saturday’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites was shocking news but financial markets are taking the news in stride at least until they can assess the Iranian response. Economically, little has changed so far. The one elevated risk would be an attempted blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. While possible, that would be a very dangerous escalation that would evoke a powerful response. Markets, at least for now, place low odds of that happening. Thus, the economic impact of the raid so far is marginal and markets remain calm.
  • June 16, 2025 – While many in Congress fret that the reconciliation bill now before the Senate raises deficits and ultimately leads to economic disaster if left unchecked in the future, the focus will be on now. That means lower taxes, faster growth and higher earnings in the short-run as long as the bond market doesn’t rebel. Only a true crisis is likely to elicit fiscal austerity. That won’t happen before the current bill, slightly modified, will pass. Wall Street will embrace it because it always embraces stimulative policy, at least until the side effects kick in. Markets are starting to replace complacency with euphoria. That can last many months. But as we learned from the SPAC debacle in 2021, it won’t last forever.
  • June 12, 2025 – Despite a resilient stock market grinding near all-time highs, a fresh wave of geopolitical risk and fiscal policy uncertainty is creating headwinds. A chorus of Wall Street’s most respected investors is sounding the alarm, warning of dangerously high valuations, an unsustainable U.S. debt burden, and the rising probability of an economic slowdown.
  • June 9, 2025 – This week the focus will be on trade negotiations with China and the progress getting the Big Beautiful Bill on the President’s desk. The former is likely to be complicated and slow moving, but any movement in the right direction should keep investors happy. As for the legislation, it will be inflationary and worrisome long-term if one focuses on future debt service requirements. But this market has heard wolf cried too often to care until either interest rates spike higher or the dollar comes under renewed attack.
  • June 5, 2025 – The Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park erupts regularly, but not on an exact schedule. Considering the most recent 100 eruptions, the average time between eruptions ranged from 55 minutes to over 2 hours. Likewise, inflation and employment data can cause ebbs and flows in the bond market, creating volatility for investors. Economic data are currently coming in mixed, mostly related to changing tariff policy. Meanwhile, equity markets are slightly positive so far this year, and only off about 3% from all-time highs.
  • June 2, 2025 – Just as the Soviets laid down the gauntlet in the 1960s starting the space race, China has caught up to us technologically in many ways and is still gaining ground in others. For the U.S. to maintain its leadership requires coordinated efforts from both the private and public sectors. Trying to erect barriers is not a winning formula. Rather, properly focusing resources to support the most strategic initiatives makes sense.
  • May 30, 2025 – Amidst a volatile market, significant economic risks such as high interest rates and trade policy are creating a tense environment where stock market gains may be capped. Key sectors, like housing, are already showing signs of strain from elevated rates, while the bond market remains turbulent. Therefore, a diversified and defensive investment strategy is recommended, emphasizing fundamental analysis and valuation discipline for stocks while holding high-quality bonds to navigate the expected volatility.

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