September 30, 2026 – Like the rings on a tree cross-section, the economy and markets are reacting to external stimuli and environmental shocks. Corporate earnings and economic growth continue to be solid, although higher interest rates threaten to slow the current expansion. The Fed believes a bit of pruning will continue to be necessary to keep inflation under control.

Trees Don’t Grow to the Sky A large tree ring exhibit sits near the entrance to Muir Woods in northern California. The exhibit is a cross-section slice of a coastal redwood that was over 1,000 years old when it fell in 1930. The historic display features key tree rings that are labeled with major world …

September 30, 2026 – Like the rings on a tree cross-section, the economy and markets are reacting to external stimuli and environmental shocks. Corporate earnings and economic growth continue to be solid, although higher interest rates threaten to slow the current expansion. The Fed believes a bit of pruning will continue to be necessary to keep inflation under control.Read More

September 23, 2026 – With safe bonds paying 5%, ordinary companies are struggling to look attractive—leaving only the booming AI giants able to keep up with the math, even as soaring expectations and heavy spending create new risks of their own.

The Order Arrives Last week, we compared financial markets to the South Korean “dopamine shopping” websites where users fill up virtual carts with things they never actually buy. For months, investors had been filling their carts with expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, wondering if one would ever actually be delivered. Last Wednesday, the …

September 23, 2026 – With safe bonds paying 5%, ordinary companies are struggling to look attractive—leaving only the booming AI giants able to keep up with the math, even as soaring expectations and heavy spending create new risks of their own.Read More

September 16, 2026 – Today is decision day for the Federal Reserve. A small interest rate hike is mostly discounted in expectations, but it may be more of a surprise if we do not get one. Energy prices and global bond yields have been marching higher over the last few weeks. Coupled with concerns surrounding an AI spending slowdown, it is no wonder that stocks have taken it on the chin recently.

Decision Day for the Fed The 10-year US Treasury yield rose this week to the highest level in almost two decades during a bruising global bond selloff. This has been driven by booming capital investment, rising government debt, and soaring energy prices that are exacerbating inflation expectations. The 10-year yield, which serves as a benchmark …

September 16, 2026 – Today is decision day for the Federal Reserve. A small interest rate hike is mostly discounted in expectations, but it may be more of a surprise if we do not get one. Energy prices and global bond yields have been marching higher over the last few weeks. Coupled with concerns surrounding an AI spending slowdown, it is no wonder that stocks have taken it on the chin recently.Read More