Wealth and Asset Management for You

A Solid Start to 2026 The S&P 500 finished 2025 with a 17.9% total return for the year, while the equal-weighted index posted an 11.4% total return. That is better…

January 7, 2026 – 2025 ended up as the third year in a row of strong stock market returns. The new year has also seen a solid start for equity markets worldwide after markets drifted lower toward the tail end of 2025. 2026 will be a convergence year. It marks the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, the 100th anniversary of the founding of Route 66, and a Chinese New Year cycle that has not been seen in 60 years. If inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings converge on a favorable path, we could see solid market returns for the full year, although there are also several potential potholes to navigate.Read More

Earnings Expectations: 14% growth seems a bit high. If I assume nominal GDP grows 6-8%, that assumes margins expand notably from already high levels. Lower taxes, some productivity improvement and…

December 29, 2025 – It is customary at the end of every year to look ahead. As I say all the time, the critical factors influencing stock prices are earnings, interest rates and the pace of inflation. Overall, consensus expectations are for earnings to increase close to 14%, inflation either slightly lower or slightly higher than we have experienced this year, and lower Fed Funds rates given that Trump is not likely to appoint anyone to be the next Federal Reserve chairman who won’t pursue a steady downward path. The combination of lower rates, modest inflation and higher earnings should be a favorable backdrop for stocks. With that said, I want to make some specific observations that may texture how the economy and the stock market act next year.Read More

Last week I noted that the impact of Federal Reserve policy, under new leadership, is likely to be the single most important driver of economic and stock market performance in…

December 22, 2025 – All the hype suggests artificial intelligence is going to be a game changer as far as productivity is concerned. But history suggests that may not be correct. While technology has been the driver of 2-3% productivity gains over the last 75 years, inventions like mainframe computers, PCs, smartphones, networking and the Internet barely moved the productivity needle. What they all did was reduce the costs of doing business. Thus, technology drives both productivity and deflation. But where AI is set to accelerate, either trend is open to debate.Read More

In recent weeks, the market has experienced a distinct recalibration, moving away from the unbridled optimism that characterized much of the year. The primary driver of this shift has been…

December 18, 2025 – The AI bubble hasn’t burst; it has matured, violently purging speculative “tourist” capital to make room for battle-tested business models that actually generate cash. While the job market falters and the Federal Reserve retreats, the real opportunity lies in ignoring the short-term carnage to focus on companies with the competitive moats necessary to dominate this new industrial order.Read More

Last week’s Fed meeting was a non-event as the stock market’s instant positive reaction was reversed Friday. Fed Funds rates came down 25 basis points as virtually everyone expected, and…

December 15, 2025 – The Fed’s expected decision to lower rates by 25 basis points was totally expected, and therefore, not market moving. As to the future, the path forward for the Fed can’t be well defined until a new Chairman is named and confirmed. The Powell Fed was marked by caution and high attention to inflation trends. The next regime could well be more growth focused and willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation, at least for a time. Whether markets are enthusiastic or not may well dictate how equity markets react.Read More

A Photo Finish The battle for the Formula 1 (F1) drivers’ championship went down to the season’s final day this past weekend after 24 Grand Prix races. Even after a…

December 11, 2025 – Formula One racing crowned a new world champion over the weekend. The race tracks involve fast straightaways followed by tight curves, and sometimes drivers veer off the track. Stock markets this year started out fast out of the gate, but then hit some serious curves in the first few months. Since then, it has been a relatively strong run to a 17% gain for the S&P 500 and a new record. The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates further yesterday, reducing the drag on the economy and suggesting some progress on the inflation front.Read More

This week, I want to discuss three topics: the economy and its impact on the stock market for 2026, affordability, the word that has emerged as a leading focus within…

December 8, 2025 – Despite a Fed that seems disjointed and ongoing tumult in Washington, markets jogged ahead. If the basis for stock prices are earnings, interest rates and long-term inflation expectations, there is no reason to back out of the market. While headline numbers of tech stock nirvana suggest risks, the average stock this year was up close to 10%, hardly a euphoric reaction to a volatile economic year. Until expectations decline, stocks should do fine.Read More

The “Winner-Take-All” Divergence The headline numbers from the third quarter present a compelling picture of corporate resilience. Earnings growth surged nearly 13%, handily beating the consensus expectation of 8%. Yet,…

December 4, 2025 – Although third-quarter corporate profits surged on the back of AI efficiencies, a sharp economic bifurcation is emerging where dominant market leaders thrive while Main Street struggles and the broader economy cools. The Federal Reserve’s pivot provides critical liquidity, yet we anticipate continued volatility and an accelerating “winner-take-all” environment where profit growth concentrates in tech-savvy giants despite slowing overall activity.Read More

A late week rally resulted in the seventh straight up month for the S&P 500. However, the 1.5% drop in the NASDAQ broke the seven month rise in that index.…

December 1, 2025 – This week will see the release of economic data delayed by the government shutdown. But it won’t be up to date data. That will come later this month. But all signs seem to indicate an economy chugging along at a measured pace with inflation still above target. Against that backdrop, the Fed appears likely to continue lowering rates providing further stimulus. With that said, there are few storm clouds mostly related to speculative and aggressive investing. This doesn’t seem to be the moment to take added risk. As Jim Cramer has said, bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered.Read More