Wealth and Asset Management for You

The Twilight Zone The Twilight Zone was a science fiction television series created and presented by Rod Serling, which ran for five seasons on CBS starting in October 1959. Each…

October 9, 2025 – Tariffs were raised this year significantly, but corporate earnings have been coming through surprisingly strong. The U.S. Government shutdown enters its second week, though overall economic growth continues. Inflation has been stuck above the Fed’s preferred level of 2% and unemployment remains relatively low, although the Federal Reserve has embarked on an interest rate easing cycle. Stock markets around the globe have reached record highs, but so has the price of gold, a typically safe-haven investment. If it feels like an episode of the Twilight Zone, you are not alone.Read More

If there is one truism about politics in the U.S. it is that giving money away helps to win votes. Taking money away is a losing proposition. When the Big…

October 6, 2025 – As long as earnings growth continues and the 10-year Treasury yield stays within the recent two-year range, the bull run for stocks should continue. The government shutdown news occupies media attention but not on Wall Street, at least until there are significant economic consequences. Ultimately, the ACA subsidies will be extended in some fashion because taking money away from voters can be politically expensive, especially for the party in power. Extending the subsidies will expand deficits but higher income and capital gains taxes will be an offset, at least this year and next.Read More

A Market at Crossroads We’re in a period of remarkable, yet precarious, market dynamics. This is not the time to be complacent, especially for those nearing retirement or those seeking…

October 2, 2025 – The stock market hit a record high yesterday—despite the government shutdown—which is a testament to the powerful influence of AI, creating a speculative frenzy that masks a cooling labor market and two-tiered, consumer-driven economy. This dichotomy poses a significant risk, making a disciplined and diversified investment strategy essential.Read More

If you look at a graph of productivity for the last 45 years, it would look like a zig-zag sideways pattern ranging between zero and 5% with few exceptions, most…

September 29, 2025 – AI is deemed by many to be the biggest economic game changer since the invention of the airplane. Maybe so, but PCs, the Internet and the iPhone didn’t move the productivity needle in any discernable way over the past 50 years. No doubt, AI will make us smarter, and some of us more economically productive. But before labeling the next decade as the golden age of productivity, we need to see some evidence of noticeable change. Universal adaptation of AI as a core business process is likely to be expensive and more time consuming than optimists suggest. In the meantime, our economy will continue to grow the old-fashioned way at the old-fashioned pace. That’s not so bad.Read More

Fairly Highly Valued Bulls and bears have been battling it out this year, and the bulls have the upper hand. Bulls are focused on continued massive AI spending, worldwide easing…

September 25, 2025 – Fed Chairman Powell noted this week that while equity prices are “fairly highly valued,” this is not a time of elevated financial stability risks. While the U.S. accounts for the majority of the largest companies in the world, our trading partners are also dealing with tariff impacts, inflation, economic growth and interest rate policy setting. The escalators at the United Nations may be glitching, but the U.S. economy, corporate earnings and equity markets around the world have continued to trend higher with a few bumps along the way.Read More

The big event last week was the FOMC meeting. While the decision to lower the Fed Funds rate for the first time this year wasn’t very controversial, the pace of…

September 22, 2025 – The Fed cut rates last week as it focuses more on the deteriorating state of our labor market. The unemployment rate remains modest but only because demand and supply are eroding in tandem, hardly a favorable state of affairs. While the concentration was on labor, more aggressive fiscal and monetary policy could increase inflationary pressures. Thus while President Trump’s new appointee opted for over a one percentage point drop in the Fed Funds rate by year end, the rest of the Board voted to move at a more measured pace. Wall Street applauded that decision.Read More

The Fed’s Balancing Act Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point interest rate cut—the first in nine months—highlighting the central bank’s growing focus on the labor market, even as inflation…

September 18, 2025 – The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point, prioritizing the labor market over persistent inflation. This decision risks a prolonged period of higher inflation and may be fueling a stock market bubble, which is already at a record valuation.Read More

Few can quibble with the statement that President Trump has been the most disruptive President since World War II. By disruptive, I am not referring to style or personality but…

September 15, 2025 – So far, investors have been happy with most of the disruptive changes of the Trump Presidency. But the fly in the ointment is the labor market which has shown little growth for several months. Job growth is the ultimate engine for economic growth. Machines and computers can replace workers but they can’t eat or spend money. History says that displaced workers will find alternative employment over time but until they do, growth may slow. Final sales growth within GDP suggests real growth today is well under 2%. That isn’t recessionary but the trend bears watching.Read More

There’s Gold in Them There Hills During the California gold rush, the news of gold brought approximately 300,000 people from the rest of the U.S. and abroad to California, and…

September 11, 2025 – The California gold rush began in 1848, when gold was found at Sutter’s Mill in Coloma, California. While many gold prospectors failed to find gold, suppliers of picks and shovels to gold miners garnered the majority of wealth creation. The current gold rush in the artificial intelligence space continues to benefit the picks and shovels equipment suppliers, although the AI “miners” may not all see a similar return on their massive investments.Read More