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August 8, 2022 – The Deficit Reduction bill does absolutely nothing to reduce inflation, at least not over the next few years. What it does do is institute a wealth tax by taxing stock repurchases made with funds that have already been taxed at least once. A 1% tax on repurchases may sound inconsequential, but don’t believe Congress will stop at 1% once the first tax is implemented. It’s a tax consumers and shareholders never see directly, therefore the most palatable to Congress, But not to shareholders.
August 5, 2022 – As markets consolidate a massive spike off June lows, we reassess what the future holds. Bearish news in June was followed by incremental positives in July. Earnings are still advancing, inflation is peaking, and valuations have normalized. The Fed and inflation remain wild cards but the worst is likely behind us unless incoming data is much worse than expected. Jobs take center stage this morning.
August 3, 2022 – Markets fell in fear of Chinese retaliation to Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, but reactions to political surprises tend to be short-lived. The focus quickly should return to the economy and inflation. While Fed officials try to speak in a more hawkish tone, their crystal balls are rarely clearer than that of the average investor. The path of economic decline (if any) and inflation will dictate how the market goes from here. The good news is that inflation has peaked allowing the Fed to take some pressure off the brakes in coming months. When it stops, markets will celebrate. In fact, they should start to celebrate before the Fed Funds rate peaks.
August 1, 2022 – The worst month of the year (June) was followed by the best month in two years. What changed? Market reaction to generally mediocre earnings reports suggests markets had caught up with a decelerating economic picture. Furthermore, markets now see the Fed decelerating its pace of future interest rate increases with cuts beginning next year. That may prove right, but can the Fed succeed with unemployment below 4%? We will learn that answer over the coming months.
July 29, 2022 – While the Fed follows their script dictated by market conditions, Chairman Powell offered hope that rate hikes going forward won’t be as strong as the 200bps implemented in the past three months. Markets extended their rally following his speech and followed through yesterday. With the Fed not meeting until September, earnings take center stage.
July 27, 2022 – The FOMC meeting today will tack on another 75 basis points to the Fed Funds rate. Starting in July, it is clear that inflation is starting to ebb, but we don’t yet know how far or how fast. The pace will guide Fed policy going forward. It will take a hawkish stance today, still aiming to bring Fed Funds to 3% or higher by the end of this year. Markets are starting to look to next year. Might growth reaccelerate in 2023? It’s much too early to call. This week’s earnings reports suggest that much of the impact of economic deceleration is already priced into stocks.
July 25, 2022 – Weak growth from Snap and Twitter reminded us on Friday that there is still downside during this earnings season, but as we enter the biggest week for reports, futures point up again this morning. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will most likely reinforce the Fed’s intent to get rates up to 3%+ quickly. Whether that will be enough to slow the economy to the point where inflation expectations can be grounded below 3% is still open to debate.
July 22, 2022 – Markets continued their summer rally, with growth stocks and battered high- flying Covid favorites leading the way. A lot of bad news has already been priced in. Stock reactions to negative news are more important than what happened to earnings in April. So far, the bulls are in charge as we start the second half of the year.
July 20, 2022 – The early signs emanating from earnings season is that markets may have correctly sized earnings expectations looking forward. It’s still early but the market reaction to date is encouraging. The real seed for this rally may have been set last week when the Fed took a 100-basis point rate increase for next week’s Fed meeting off the table. For the first time in months, the Fed and the market seem in synch.
July 18, 2022 – Stocks surged on Friday holding early gains throughout the session. They look to open higher again this morning as the odds that the Fed will increase the Federal Funds rate by 100 basis points next week fade. Earnings season gets going in earnest this week and next. Have expectations been reset enough? The answer to that question will tell us how close we are to a market bottom.

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101 West Elm Street, Suite 355
Conshohocken, PA 19428
Phone: 610.260.2200
Toll Free: 866.959.2200

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