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Economic Outlook 2022

December 2021 Economic Update – “2022 Outlook”

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

December Webinar - Economic Update

In this video, Tower Bridge Advisors’ Chief Investment Officer Jim Meyer discusses the economic outlook for 2022. There are many factors at play; The Fed, interest rates, COVID, supply chain disruption, inflation, etc. Jim sorts through the various issues and suggests how investors should approach portfolio management in the year ahead.  

December 2021 Economic Update – “2022 Outlook”Read More

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  • December 19, 2024 – The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point yesterday, but signaled that only two more rate cuts may be coming in 2025 instead of the four cuts widely expected. Fed Chairman Powell said it is like “driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture: you slow down, you go less quickly.” That hawkish and more uncertain tone was not well received by markets. While the stock market is typically volatile on Fed decision days, the 10-year yield backed up to 4.5% and stocks dropped about 3% following the Fed’s remarks. Markets have been strongly positive this year, but a pause on this news provides a chance to focus on better valuations. Stock market futures are indicated positively this morning.
  • December 16, 2024 – The FOMC meeting this week will likely dominate markets as earnings season is largely over and a few key economic reports are due. The key will be any suggestions that alter the future path of rate changes. While few expect rate cuts of 25 basis points or more to occur at each meeting going forward, some call for 3 or more in 2025 while some ponder the thought that there might be none if inflation stays near 3% or goes higher. Any change in overall expectations will be market moving.
  • December 12, 2024 – A Fed rate cut is likely in December even though inflation remains persistent, but further cuts are uncertain. Despite positive economic indicators and strong stock market performance, high valuations and potential risks like trade wars and geopolitical issues could lead to a market correction. Investors should proceed with caution in 2025, maintaining a balanced portfolio and realistically assessing potential challenges, as market volatility may increase.
  • December 9, 2024 – To paraphrase the old saw, history never repeats itself; it just rhymes a lot. Speculation has escalated to the point that it is starting to resemble the meme stocks and SPACs of 2021. Nowhere is this more obvious than in alternative mechanisms to play the surge in bitcoin prices. While one can’t say when speculative bubbles will burst, ultimately, they always explode. 23+ times forward earnings suggests a market priced for perfection. While the rally could extend through year end as investors try to defer realized gains until next year, caution is advised.
  • December 5, 2024 – “Water, water everywhere, and not a drop to drink.” In Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s poem, The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, sailors at sea are surrounded by water but are unable to drink it. This is the irony of being surrounded by something but being unable to benefit fully from it. Similarly, the economy may be chugging along at 2.5-3% GDP growth, and the holiday season seems to have kicked off to a strong start with decent consumer spending trends, but not all companies are benefitting equally. Meanwhile, equity markets continue to hit new highs.
  • December 2, 2024 – November was the best month for stocks so far in 2024. At the same time yields on 10-year Treasuries have declined from 4.4% to 4.2%. The message of the market isn’t always right. But it’s a good place to start.
  • November 29, 2024 – With the conclusion of Thanksgiving, investors are now looking towards December holidays and the end of what has been another strong year of market gains. Markets exhibited a risk-off sentiment on Wednesday ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday, influenced by ongoing tariff discussions and some disappointing updates from major tech companies. Let’s recap this data from this shortened trading week.
  • November 25, 2024 – After a brief surge post-Election, markets have generally moved sideways over the past two weeks as they await actions on tariffs, deportations, and forcing a reduction in our collective regulatory burden. The hyperbole of 60% tariffs, deporting 20 million people, and saving $2 trillion is just that, hyperbole. Nonetheless, there likely will be tariffs, the southern border crossings will be reduced, some will be deported, and the regulatory burden will be reduced. Wall Street will judge the economic balance of these activities over the coming weeks and months. The outcome will dictate the market’s direction in 2025.
  • November 21, 2024 – The stock market, particularly the S&P 500, is currently experiencing a period of high valuations, prompting concerns about its sustainability. Several metrics point to this overvaluation: the S&P 500 is trading at a high price-to-earnings ratio, nearing its peak levels from recent years; bond yields remain elevated, reducing the attractiveness of stocks relative to safer investments; and indicators like the CAPE ratio and price-to-sales ratio are flashing warning signs reminiscent of the dot-com bubble era.
  • November 18, 2024 – The honeymoon is over. Now comes the task of translating campaign promises into reality. To date, we have not seen Trump’s economic nominees but they are less likely to be as controversial as a few announced last week. But the economic future will depend less on Cabinet appointments and more on initial Executive Orders and Congressional actions. Tariffs and less immigration will be headwinds; less regulation and more M&A activity will be offsetting positives. The keys will be the 10-year Treasury yield and steps to keep the deficit within acceptable limits.

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