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March 29, 2023 – Banks stocks are an important market indicator, usually outperforming as the market recovery begins. Current bank stock valuations suggest upside for the long term, but until investors are satisfied that banks are adequately reserved to withstand economic weakness, the volatility will continue. We take a deeper look at bank loan portfolios and the position of commercial loans.
March 27, 2023 – A hectic week ended with markets close to where they began. Banks continued to be a weak spot. Lower oil prices impacted the energy sector. Overall, the economy still seems resilient, but recent stress will impact activity as banks tighten loan standards and corporations seek liquidity.
March 24, 2023 – Contradictions abound as we close out the week following another volatile reaction to a Fed meeting. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, even though banks are begging for cash at the discount window at levels above the peak in 2008. Numerous officials preach that bank deposits are safe, but Secretary Yellen offered less enthusiasm than hoped for with her Congressional testimony. All of this adds up to more uncertainty and a range-bound market.
March 22, 2023 – Hang on to your hats. It’s FOMC day! Fed officials face a tough call, on whether to raise rates amid current banking turmoil. Markets believe they will. But the rate hiking cycle is nearing an end. Even assuming one more increase in May, summer inflation should have cooled enough to stop the rate hikes. The strong stock market rally of the past two days suggests a belief that the cost of the current banking turmoil can be contained. Whether that is hope or truth remains to be seen. It is rare for financial crises to end until the Fed changes direction.
March 20, 2023 – UBS buys out Credit Suisse and disaster is averted once again, but markets remain skittish. First Republic seems next in line. All this comes in front of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Crises don’t end until the Fed changes course. A pause is in order. That would contradict previous signals. A pause doesn’t have to concede that the fight against inflation is over. It would merely be a pause. If bank failure fears can be contained, another rise in rates in May would be possible, if needed. But there is a lot of evidence to suggest it won’t be. The stock market’s course near-term is clearly binary depending on what the Fed does Wednesday.
March 17, 2023 – While banks are scrounging for support, ancillary effects are becoming priced into cyclical sectors of the market as lower interest rates bring investors back to growth leaders. Quadruple options expiration and further bank concerns will drive more volatility to end this crazy week. A record breaking rush to the Fed Discount Window shows how desperate some banks are to cover recent withdrawals.
March 15, 2023 – Stocks rebounded yesterday, stemming losses from last week, but the recovery may be short-lived as European bank stocks are under severe pressure this morning. The failures of two banks in the last week may be the end of the crisis or the tip of the iceberg. We won’t know that for days or weeks. In the meantime, markets hate uncertainty, and the likelihood of recession has risen. Beware the Ides of March.
March 13, 2023 – The Fed and FDIC stepped in over the weekend to create a new lending program to save depositors of two large banks that failed since Friday. That’s an important first step, but the rules of engagement in the banking industry have changed. Banks will have to pay depositors to retain their money. The same will go for stock brokers. We are witnessing what happens when the Fed is forced to change the money landscape too quickly. Every tightening cycle has its crisis. We are in the midst of one now. Crises happen at the end of a cycle, a consequence of earlier actions. Now the Fed needs to find a new path to secure the economy and fight inflation.
March 10, 2023 – It is Friday Jobs Day yet again! Never before have so many backward-looking reports meant so much for markets. February CPI is next in line this coming Tuesday. Fed Chair Powell has not really changed much of his commentary; the Fed is data dependent and the Fed Funds rate will be higher for longer. However, recent stress in the banking sector may throw a wrench in their plans to raise rates much higher.
March 8, 2023- Fed Chair Jerome Powell spooked markets increasing the odds of another 50-basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate later this month, but calmer inflation numbers over the next 10 days could either calm or reinforce those odds. Meanwhile, both stocks and bonds remain rangebound despite yesterday’s sharp price drops.

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Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management, Registered Investment Advisors

101 West Elm Street, Suite 355
Conshohocken, PA 19428
Phone: 610.260.2200
Toll Free: 866.959.2200

Why Tower Bridge Advisors?
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