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May 23, 2022 – We avoided a bear market with a late day rally on Friday, but it’s hard to assume that a bottom is in. With stocks now down about 20%, we are more than halfway to a bear market bottom using historic averages as a guide. If we assume, at least for now, that any pending recession might be milder than average, hopefully, peak-to-trough, this market can be kinder to investors than the average bear market. Bear markets are ugly but they don’t last long, usually months, not years. Hopefully, we can see an end before too long.
May 20, 2022 – Retail earnings wreaked even more havoc on stock prices this week. Discretionary and Staple stocks suffered the most, and bonds finally offered a safe haven. A small relief rally yesterday came as options expire today. Volatility is still here, but valuations are back to historic norms.
May 18, 2022 – Stocks have finally begun to rally, a sign that market valuations have normalized. Perhaps the recent sharp declines were too much. While a V-shape may be forming, hinting at a bottom, there are few signs that speculative fever has been fully purged or that investors can see clearly past the series of interest rate increases to come. An interim bottom seems more logical than a final one.
May 16, 2022 – Stocks had a strong rally Friday after a sharp recovery Thursday afternoon, but to be convincing, we need another strong follow through today. We’ll see. Markets seem to have made a fair adjustment to a slowing economic outlook and a good part of the speculative purge has been accomplished. But, while stocks have returned to fair value, they may not yet be cheap enough to ignite a powerful, sustainable rally.
May 13, 2022 – The 2nd worst start to the year for equities is finally bringing numerous signs of finding a floor. We’re not at the all-clear signal yet, but many world class companies are now trading at relatively favorable entry points for long-term investors. Numerous questions remain, so baby steps are suggested for those with excess cash waiting to re-enter markets.
May 11, 2022 – The messages of the bond and stock markets over the past week have been quite different. Bond prices are about where they were before the FOMC meeting, while stocks continue in free fall. The NASDAQ has performed worse as speculation continues to be purged from the market. That process is well advanced but shows no sign of ending yet.
May 9, 2022 – Last week’s market was highly volatile, with very little net change except for the high P/E NASDAQ names. The Fed did what was expected, and both earnings and economic data were in line with forecasts. Unless the outlook changes appreciably in the weeks ahead, expect volatility to slow. Against that backdrop, reducing risk is a better path than speculation.
May 6, 2022- Cinco de Mayo was not a festive affair. Initially, it seemed Chair Powell threaded the needle yet again with stocks staging a massive run after his speech Wednesday afternoon. That rally only lasted a few hours as rates spiked and stocks got whacked yesterday. We remain range-bound but are teetering on critical support levels.
May 4, 2022 – The key to the market today is Jerome Powell’s press conference at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. What is key is whether or not he deviates from the current consensus on rate hikes and future reductions in the Fed’s balance sheet. Stocks are off to their worst annual start since 1939. I suspect today isn’t the day Mr. Powell wants to add more fuel to the fire.
May 2, 2022- When leadership gets taken out to the woodshed, the whole market dies. That is what happened last week. While some escaped (e.g., Microsoft) the loud and clear message is that the big boys of the S&P 500 are now at or near economic maturity. That isn’t a message a market already worried about interest rates and recession wanted to hear.

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Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management, Registered Investment Advisors

101 West Elm Street, Suite 355
Conshohocken, PA 19428
Phone: 610.260.2200
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Why Tower Bridge Advisors?
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