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October 2021 Economic Update – “This time is different – or is it?”

//  by Tower Bridge Advisors

In this video titled, “This time is different – or is it?”, Senior Portfolio Manager Chris Crooks addresses the current economic outlook by looking at the parallels between the current pandemic and its economic impact, versus the economic impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. History doesn’t always repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.

Tower Bridge Advisors manages over $1.3 Billion for individuals, families and select institutions with $1 Million or more of investable assets. We build portfolios of individual securities customized for each client's specific goals and objectives. Contact Nick Filippo (610-260-2222, nfilippo@towerbridgeadvisors.com) to learn more or to set up a complimentary portfolio review.

# – This security is owned by the author of this report or accounts under his management at Tower Bridge Advisors.

Additional information on companies in this report is available on request. This report is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing company, industry or security mentioned herein. This firm or its officers, stockholders, employees and clients, in the normal course of business, may have or acquire a position including options, if any, in the securities mentioned. This communication shall not be deemed to constitute an offer, or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. The information above has been obtained from sources believed reliable, but is not necessarily complete and is not guaranteed. This report is prepared for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Opinions are subject to change without notice.

Filed Under: Economic Updates, Video Tagged With: Chris Crooks, cryptocurrency, Economic Update, higher interest rates, Inflation expectations, market outlook, Philadelphia Wealth & Asset Management, supply chain disruptions, Tower Bridge Advisors

Previous Post: « October 11, 2021 – Markets remain volatile as growth slows, interest rates rise, and Washington politics remain a mess. Until supply chain problems are resolved the picture is unlikely to change. Demand is strong but much of it is unfilled. Perhaps it is time for Washington to take notice.
Next Post: December 2021 Economic Update – “2022 Outlook” December Webinar - Economic Update»

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  • December 15, 2025 – The Fed’s expected decision to lower rates by 25 basis points was totally expected, and therefore, not market moving. As to the future, the path forward for the Fed can’t be well defined until a new Chairman is named and confirmed. The Powell Fed was marked by caution and high attention to inflation trends. The next regime could well be more growth focused and willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation, at least for a time. Whether markets are enthusiastic or not may well dictate how equity markets react.
  • December 11, 2025 – Formula One racing crowned a new world champion over the weekend. The race tracks involve fast straightaways followed by tight curves, and sometimes drivers veer off the track. Stock markets this year started out fast out of the gate, but then hit some serious curves in the first few months. Since then, it has been a relatively strong run to a 17% gain for the S&P 500 and a new record. The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates further yesterday, reducing the drag on the economy and suggesting some progress on the inflation front.
  • December 8, 2025 – Despite a Fed that seems disjointed and ongoing tumult in Washington, markets jogged ahead. If the basis for stock prices are earnings, interest rates and long-term inflation expectations, there is no reason to back out of the market. While headline numbers of tech stock nirvana suggest risks, the average stock this year was up close to 10%, hardly a euphoric reaction to a volatile economic year. Until expectations decline, stocks should do fine.
  • December 4, 2025 – Although third-quarter corporate profits surged on the back of AI efficiencies, a sharp economic bifurcation is emerging where dominant market leaders thrive while Main Street struggles and the broader economy cools. The Federal Reserve’s pivot provides critical liquidity, yet we anticipate continued volatility and an accelerating “winner-take-all” environment where profit growth concentrates in tech-savvy giants despite slowing overall activity.
  • December 1, 2025 – This week will see the release of economic data delayed by the government shutdown. But it won’t be up to date data. That will come later this month. But all signs seem to indicate an economy chugging along at a measured pace with inflation still above target. Against that backdrop, the Fed appears likely to continue lowering rates providing further stimulus. With that said, there are few storm clouds mostly related to speculative and aggressive investing. This doesn’t seem to be the moment to take added risk. As Jim Cramer has said, bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered.
  • November 24, 2025 – Market corrections can begin for almost any reason. This one’s birth was originated by fears that the AI hype got too extended, and in some cases, built on a base of too much debt. A rush to risk averse assets also sent bitcoin into a tailspin, perhaps causing those owning too much bitcoin on leverage to sell other assets including equities. Yet the economy chugs along showing no signs of a recession. Thus, we appear to be in the midst of a valuation correction, one that still may take a while to run its course.
  • November 20, 2025 – The last penny was recently minted in Philadelphia where the first one was minted over 230 years ago. The problem is that it now costs over three times more to make a penny than it is worth. There have been concerns that artificial intelligence data centers and infrastructure are also consuming more resources than the payoff may be worth. The technology sector has been declining over the past couple of weeks on these concerns. Nvidia allayed fears of a near-term AI bubble with positive guidance for the fourth quarter last night, although recent earnings reports from several retailers add to a cloudy overall economic outlook.
  • November 17, 2025 – Last week saw massive rotation out of technology leaders into value stocks long forgotten in this year’s rally. Tech investors were spooked by a growing chorus of concerns around circular investing and stretched balance sheets. Some of the fears are real and some probably exaggerated. Given the strong performance over the last two years, some consolidation was clearly called for. Is the correction over? There certainly hasn’t been any panic or capitulation yet. If one looks closely, the big companies doing the best, experienced only modest declines in their stock prices. Those whose promises might have been exaggerated started to pay the price. That purge probably has more room to go.
  • November 13, 2025 – Markets are trading near record highs, buoyed by the end of the government shutdown and strong corporate earnings, yet this optimism is tempered by risks from a cautious Federal Reserve, a potential AI spending bubble, and an increasingly strained consumer. Given this disconnect between high valuations and mounting risks, a pullback should be expected, reinforcing the need for investors to remain diversified and focused on high-quality companies that can weather a downturn.
  • November 10, 2025 – Last week witnessed a pricking of the tech bubble as several high-profile names lost 10-30% of their value in one day based on iffy forward-looking outlooks. Simultaneously, last Tuesday’s election suggested broad dissatisfaction with the direction this country is heading. Wall Street tends to ignore elections but the combination of an expensive market and concerning forward-looking outlooks were not well received by a market trading near valuation extremes. There hasn’t been a correction of 3% or more since Liberation Day last April. Caveat emptor.

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